政府移轉支出對於老人家戶消費傾向的城鄉差異

Abstract

臺灣人口結構高齡化速度極快，老人福利政策益發重要，但針對老人津貼的效益仍未有具體的分析，本文利用臺灣主計總處 1994-2016 年家庭收支調查，依戶長出生年劃分為世代追蹤資料，在控制家戶組成、各項所得後，考慮年齡、世代、時間、地區固定效果下探討老人家戶對於從政府移轉收入的邊際消費傾向。估計結果顯示鄉村家戶的邊際消費傾向顯著為正且遞減，城市家戶的邊際消費傾向則在統計上及經濟上皆不顯著，若政府欲發放普遍性的老人年金以改善老人福利，根據本文結果分配預算時應著重鄉村老人的補助。

Taiwan's population is aging rapidly, and it makes senior citizens welfare more important. However, the benefits the elderly get from public transfer are lack of analysis. In this paper, I collect the Family Income and Expenditure Survey from 1994 troungh 2016, and use the raw data to construct cohorts according to age of householder. Under the Age-Period-Cohort framework, I estimate the marginal propensity to consume(MPC) out of public transfer to the elderly. The result indicates that MPC of rural household is significantly positive and decreasing. In contrast, MPC of urban household is insignificant statistically and economically. According to this paper, the authorities should establish a bigger budget spending on rural areas instead of urban areas while considering senior citizens welfare.