都市地區小規模危老建物自力重建策略

Abstract

根據內政部統計，全臺屋齡逾三十年住宅占比達 53%，臺北市更高達 72%，為全國最高。此類建築多於九二一地震前興建，耐震設計未臻完善，對高齡住戶構成明顯居住風險。隨著臺灣邁入超高齡社會，住宅安全與功能升級已成為城市更新的重要課題。《都市危險及老舊建築物加速重建條例》（以下簡稱危老條例）實施以來，重建案件多具基地面積小、誘因不足與建商參與意願低等特性，傳統合建模式推動有限。本文聚焦於缺乏建商誘因之小基地個案，探討住戶主導自力重建之策略方向與實務挑戰，並建構一套自力重建可行性評估工具。進一步應用該模型，透過敏感度分析與蒙地卡羅模擬進行風險評估，採三角分布模擬不確定變數，量化不同條件下對分回效益的影響程度與潛在區間，輔以試算與專家訪談進行實證驗證。最終歸納出自力重建操作之七大構面策略，涵蓋共識形成、制度選擇、坪效規劃、資源整合與工程執行等面向，強調專業整合與時機判斷為關鍵，提供住戶理性決策之行動架構，期能補足制度落差，促進土地再利用，強化住宅安全與都市韌性。

According to statistics from the Ministry of the Interior, 53% of housing units in Taiwan are over 30 years old, with Taipei City reaching 72%. Most were built before the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, lacking modern seismic design and barrier-free access, posing risks to elderly residents. As Taiwan becomes a super-aged society, upgrading housing safety and functionality has become a pressing issue.To address these challenges, the Statute for Expediting Reconstruction of Urban Unsafe and Old Buildings was enacted to streamline procedures and offer incentives. However, most approved projects involve small-scale sites with limited redevelopment value and low developer interest, making traditional joint construction models ineffective.This study examines resident-led reconstruction in such contexts, developing a feasibility evaluation model to assess self-redevelopment potential based on returnable floor area. Sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are applied to evaluate risk under variable uncertainty, using triangular distributions for key inputs such as housing prices, construction costs, and floor area bonuses. Results identify the most influential variables and the probable range of outcomes, with validation through modeling and expert interviews.The study proposes seven strategic dimensions for self-redevelopment: consensus building, regulatory choice, land use efficiency, financial planning, resource integration, construction management, and timing. This framework supports informed decision-making, enhances policy alignment, and promotes safer, more resilient urban housing.