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Title: | 中國的農產品進口措施對臺灣鳳梨價格影響之研究 The Impacts of Chinese Agricultural Import Measures on the Pineapple Prices in Taiwan |
Authors: | 張家瑜 Chia-Yu Chang |
Advisor: | 陳郁蕙 Yu-Hui Chen |
Keyword: | 金鑽鳳梨,價格傳遞,兩岸貿易,進口措施,NARDL 模型, Golden Diamond Pineapple,Price Transmission,Cross-Strait Trade,Import Measures,NARDL Model, |
Publication Year : | 2023 |
Degree: | 碩士 |
Abstract: | 鳳梨為臺灣產量與產值最高之果品,在2021年鳳梨的產量約40萬公噸而產值則達89億元新臺幣。自2005年臺灣開始出口至中國,2011-2020年間鳳梨外銷高達九成是出口中國;但2021年3月中國暫停我國鳳梨輸入後,不僅使外銷量大幅下降,也使2022年國產鳳梨產量與產值明顯下滑,連帶對國內鳳梨生產與價格造成影響,有鑑於此,本研究將探討中國的進口措施對臺灣鳳梨價格的影響。
臺灣鳳梨外銷至中國的出口情況大致可分為四個階段,分別為第一階段2005年8月中國對臺灣鳳梨免徵進口稅至2013年12月ECFA協定生效前、第二階段2011年1月ECFA協定生效後至2013年12月中菲產生主權爭議前、第三階段2014年1月中菲產生主權爭議後至2021年2月中國暫停進口臺灣鳳梨前、第四階段2021年3月中國暫停進口臺灣鳳梨後;本文以Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)模型與Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL)模型,及2005年8月至2023年5月的月資料進行分析。探討各階段國內批發市場鳳梨的價量關係、受到中國進口措施的影響、以及各階段國產鳳梨產地與批發地之間的價格傳遞效果與價量的變化。研究結果顯示,中菲產生主權爭議至中國暫停我國鳳梨輸入前(第三階段),臺灣鳳梨批發市場交易價量與外銷至中國出口量間不具長期共整合關係,顯示該階段資料僅適用於短期模型;此階段鳳梨外銷至中國的量變動,對批發市場交易價格正向影響。其他一、二、四個階段則適用於長期與短期模型,其中在第二階段,鳳梨批發市場交易價格短期受鳳梨外銷至中國量批發市場交易量變動對稱(變動幅度一樣)的負向影響。而長期則是受鳳梨外銷量與批發市場交易量變動對稱之影響,在長期鳳梨外銷至中國的量變動,對批發市場交易價格正向影響。在臺北一、二批發市場中,鳳梨交易價量與外銷至中國出口量在四個階段均具有長期共整合關係,第一至三階段鳳梨批發市場交易價格短期受鳳梨外銷至中國的量非對稱的影響;在短期,第一階段鳳梨外銷至中國量變化對鳳梨批發市場交易價格有正向影響;第二階段鳳梨外銷至中國量變化對鳳梨批發市場交易價格有負向影響。在長期,第二階段鳳梨外銷至中國量變化,對批發市場交易價格有正向影響。 Pineapple is the highest yielding and most valuable fruit crop in Taiwan. In 2021, pineapple production reached approximately 400,000 metric tons, with a total value of 8.9 billion New Taiwan Dollars. Taiwan has been exporting pineapples to China since 2005, with approximately ninety percent of pineapple exports directed to China between 2011 and 2020. However, China temporarily suspended imports of Taiwanese pineapples in March 2021. This suspension not only led to a significant decline in export volume but also resulted in a notable drop in domestic pineapple production and value in 2022. Consequently, this had a ripple effect on the domestic pineapple industry, impacting both production and prices. Given these circumstances, this study aims to investigate the impact of China's import measures on the prices of Taiwanese pineapples. The export of Taiwanese pineapples to China can be divided into four stages: the first stage from August 2005, when China exempted import duties on Taiwanese pineapples, to December 2013 before the ECFA agreement came into effect; the second stage from January 2011 after the ECFA agreement was in effect until December 2013 before the China-Philippines sovereignty dispute arose; the third stage from January 2014 after the China-Philippines sovereignty dispute until February 2021 before China suspended imports of Taiwanese pineapples; and the fourth stage after China's suspension of Taiwanese pineapple imports from March 2021 onwards. This study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) models to analyze monthly data spanning from August 2005 to May 2023. The research examines the price-quantity relationship in the domestic wholesale pineapple market during each stage, the impact of China's import measures, and the price transmission effect along with changes in price and quantity between domestic pineapple farm gate and wholesale markets. The results indicate that there is no long-term cointegration relationship between the wholesale price-quantity of Taiwanese pineapples and the export volume to China during the period from the China-Philippines sovereignty dispute to the suspension of Taiwanese pineapple imports by China (the third stage). This suggests that the data in this stage are only suitable for short-term modeling. Changes in the export volume of pineapples to China during this stage have a positive impact on wholesale prices. The first, second, and fourth stages are applicable to both long-term and short-term models. In the second stage, short-term fluctuations in the wholesale price of pineapples are negatively affected by symmetric (same magnitude) changes in the export volume and wholesale volume of pineapples to China. In the long term, the impact is influenced by symmetric changes in the export volume of pineapples and wholesale volume, resulting in a positive effect on wholesale prices. In Taipei's wholesale markets, there is a long-term cointegration between pineapple price, quantity, and export volume to China in all four stages. During the first to third stages, short-term fluctuations in the wholesale price of pineapples are asymmetrically affected by changes in the export volume of pineapples to China. In the short term, changes in the export volume of pineapples to China have a positive impact on the wholesale price in the first stage, while they have a negative impact in the second stage. In the long term, changes in the export volume of pineapples to China in the second stage have a positive impact on wholesale prices. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/90663 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202304057 |
Fulltext Rights: | 未授權 |
Appears in Collections: | 農業經濟學系 |
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