請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/90663
完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 陳郁蕙 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.advisor | Yu-Hui Chen | en |
dc.contributor.author | 張家瑜 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author | Chia-Yu Chang | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-10-03T17:04:46Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2023-11-09 | - |
dc.date.copyright | 2023-10-03 | - |
dc.date.issued | 2023 | - |
dc.date.submitted | 2023-08-13 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | 行政院農業部,「農產品批發市場行情站」,檢自https://amis.afa.gov.tw/fruit/FruitChartProdTransPriceVolumeTrend.aspx ,檢索日期 :2023/6/14
行政院農業部,「農產品產地價格查報系統」,檢自 https://apis.afa.gov.tw/pagepub/AppContentPage.aspx?itemNo=PRI075 ,檢索日期 :2023/6/14 行政院農業部,「農業統計資料查詢」,取自https://agrstat.moa.gov.tw/sdweb/public/trade/TradeCoa.aspx,檢索日期 :2023/6/14 吳寶芬,(2015年2月13日),臺灣鳳梨外銷現況與未來展望。農政與農情。104年2月(第272期),檢自https://www.moa.gov.tw/ws.php?id=2502573, 宋廣聲、官青杉(2020年4月10日)。【圖解】牛奶鳳梨、釋迦鳳梨…一次認識台灣鳳梨品種!。自由時報。檢自:https://food.ltn.com.tw/article/3876, 林幸君(2013), 兩岸農產品貿易對臺灣經濟影響分析-區域投入產出分析,農業經濟叢刊,第9卷第 1期, 81-127頁。 殷瑞妤、洪思賢、李芳琳、 謝廉一(2023年2月24日),112 年2 月主要農作物生產預測。農政與農情。112年2月(第368期),檢自https://www.moa.gov.tw/ws.php?id=2513955 財政部關務署,「關港貿單一窗口」,檢自https://portal.sw.nat.gov.tw/APGA/GA30,檢索日期 :2023/7/30 蔡國瑋(2023),中國對臺禁運鳳梨措施對臺灣鳳梨價格影響之研究,國立臺灣大學農業經濟所碩士論文。 Alhashim, J., & Saghaian, S. (2015). Price Transmission Analysis in the Fresh Vegetable Supply Chain of Saudi Arabia. Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2010). A panel study of nuclear energy consumption and economic growth. Energy Economics, 32(3), 545-549. Arita, S., Beckman, J., & Mitchell, L. (2017). Reducing transatlantic barriers on US-EU agri-food trade: What are the possible gains? Food Policy, 68, 233-247. Aruga, K., Islam, M. M., & Jannat, A. (2022). Effects of the state of emergency during the COVID-19 pandemic on Tokyo vegetable markets. Sustainability, 14(15), 9719. Athukorala, P. C., & Jayasuriya, S. (2003). Food safety issues, trade and WTO rules: A developing country perspective. World Economy, 26(9), 1395-1416. Atici, C., & Furuya, J. (2008). Regional blocs and agricultural trade flow: The case of ASEAN. Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly: JARQ, 42(2), 115-121. Azen, R., & Budescu, D. V. (2003). The dominance analysis approach for comparing predictors in multiple regression. Psychological methods, 8(2), 129. Bathan, B. M., & Lantican, F. A. (2009). Economic Impact of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures on Philippine Pineapple Exports. Journal of the International Society for Southeast Asian Agricultural Sciences, 15(1), 126-143. Charoenrit, P. P., Jatuporn, C., Pantavisid, S., Suvanvihok, V., & Rueangrit, P. (2021). Testing for price transmission in Thailand’s oil palm and palm oil markets: an empirical study using time series analysis. International Journal of Agricultural Extension, 9(3), 451-459. Cook, D. (2001). An economic evaluation of interstate quarantine protocols for mangoes entering Western Australia. Agribusiness Review, 9, N-A. Davidson, J. E., Hendry, D. F., Srba, F., & Yeo, S. (1978). Econometric modelling of the aggregate time-series relationship between consumers' expenditure and income in the United Kingdom. The Economic Journal, 88(352), 661-692. De Frahan, B. H., & Vancauteren, M. (2006). Harmonisation of food regulations and trade in the Single Market: evidence from disaggregated data. European review of agricultural economics, 33(3), 337-360 Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072. Disdier, A. C., & Marette, S. (2010). The combination of gravity and welfare approaches for evaluating nontariff measures. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 92(3), 713-726. DITC, U. (2010). Non-tariff measures: Evidence from selected developing countries and future research Agenda. Eck, D. J. (2018). Bootstrapping for multivariate linear regression models. Statistics & Probability Letters, 134, 141-149. Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276. Götz, L., von Cramon-Taubadel, S., & Kachel, Y. (2014). Vertical price transmission in the international fresh fruit and vegetable supply chain: Israeli grapefruit exports to the EU after export liberalisation. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, 53(892-2016-65232), 99-120. Grant, J. H., & Boys, K. A. (2012). Agricultural trade and the GATT/WTO: Does membership make a difference? . Aerican Journal of Agricultural Economics, 94(1), 1-24. Grant, J. H., Peterson, E., & Ramniceanu, R. (2015). Assessing the impact of SPS regulations on US fresh fruit and vegetable exports. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 144-163. Harvie, C., & Pahlavani, M. (2006). Sources of economic growth in South Korea: an application of the ARDL analysis in the presence of structural breaks–1980-2005. Hassan, D., & Simioni, M. (2002). Price linkage and transmission between shippers and retailers in the French fresh vegetable channel (No. 723-2016-48890). Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with appucations to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 52(2), 169-210. Josling, T. E., Roberts, D., & Orden, D. (2004). Food Regulation And Trade: Toward A Safe And Open Global System--An Overview And Synopsis. Kharin, S. V. (2015). Vertical Price Transmission Analysis Along the Cheese Supply Chain. Современная экономика: проблемы и решения, (2), 45-55. Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?. Journal of econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178. Lajdová, Z., & Bielik, P. (2013). Vertical price transmission analysis: The case of milk in the Slovak dairy sector. APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, 7(1033-2016-83988), 89-96 Lajdová, Z., & Bielik, P. (2015). The evidence of asymmetric price adjustments. Agricultural economics, 61(3), 105-115. Lee S and Prabhakar D (2021). COVID-19 non-tariff measures: The good and the bad, through a sustainable development lens. Research Paper No. 60. UNCTAD Li, Y., & Beghin, J. C. (2012). A meta-analysis of estimates of the impact of technical barriers to trade. Journal of policy modeling, 34(3), 497-511. Lima, J. D., & Bathan, B. M. (2016). Economic Impact of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement on Philippine Fresh Banana Exports. Journal of Global Business and Trade, 12(1), 1-8. Loginova, D., & Irek, J. (2022). Russian meat price transmission and policy interventions in 2014. Agricultural and Food Economics, 10(1), 2. Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New introduction to multiple time series analysis. Springer Science & Business Media. Menegaki, A. N. (2011). Growth and renewable energy in Europe: A random effect model with evidence for neutrality hypothesis. Energy economics, 33(2), 257-263. Morley, B. (2006). Causality between economic growth and immigration: An ARDL bounds testing approach. Economics Letters, 90(1), 72-76. Nawi, M. A. A., Ahmad, W. M. A. W., Mohd, M. S., Ibrahim, M. M., Khamis, M. F., & Mohamed, M. A. (2019). Proving the Efficiency of Alternative Linear Regression Model Based on Mean Square Error (MSE) and Average Width using Aquaculture Data. International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering (IJRTE), 8, 377-381. Nkoro, E., & Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric methods, 5(4), 63-91. Onegina, V., Megits, N., Kravchenko, O., & Kravchenko, Y. (2022). Price transmission in milk supply chain in Ukraine. Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, 8(1), 152-170. Paiva, C. (2008). Assessing protectionism and subsidies in agriculture—A gravity approach. Journal of International Development: The Journal of the Development Studies Association, 20(5), 628-640. Panagiotou, D. (2021). Asymmetric price responses of the US pork retail prices to farm and wholesale price shocks: A nonlinear ARDL approach. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 23, e00185. Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1995). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis (Vol. 9514). Cambridge, UK: Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. Rezitis, A. N. (2019). Investigating price transmission in the Finnish dairy sector: an asymmetric NARDL approach. Empirical Economics, 57, 861-900 Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications, 281-314. Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1-48. Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the world economy; suggestions for an international economic policy. UNCTAD and World Bank (2018). The Unseen Impact of Non-Tariff Measures: Insights from a New Database (Geneva). UNCTAD. (2021). Global Trade Update February 2021. Geneva: United Nations Commission on Trade and Development Wen, J., Khalid, S., Mahmood, H., & Zakaria, M. (2021). Symmetric and asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on food prices in China: A new evidence. Resources Policy, 74, 102247. World Trade Organization (WTO), Sanitary and Phytosanitary Regulations database, WTO (2021) ( https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/sps_e/sps_e.htm) Yue, C., & Beghin, J. C. (2009). Tariff Equivalent and Forgone Trade Effects of Prohibitive Technical Barriers to Trade. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 91(4), 930-941. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2009.01306.x | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/90663 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 鳳梨為臺灣產量與產值最高之果品,在2021年鳳梨的產量約40萬公噸而產值則達89億元新臺幣。自2005年臺灣開始出口至中國,2011-2020年間鳳梨外銷高達九成是出口中國;但2021年3月中國暫停我國鳳梨輸入後,不僅使外銷量大幅下降,也使2022年國產鳳梨產量與產值明顯下滑,連帶對國內鳳梨生產與價格造成影響,有鑑於此,本研究將探討中國的進口措施對臺灣鳳梨價格的影響。
臺灣鳳梨外銷至中國的出口情況大致可分為四個階段,分別為第一階段2005年8月中國對臺灣鳳梨免徵進口稅至2013年12月ECFA協定生效前、第二階段2011年1月ECFA協定生效後至2013年12月中菲產生主權爭議前、第三階段2014年1月中菲產生主權爭議後至2021年2月中國暫停進口臺灣鳳梨前、第四階段2021年3月中國暫停進口臺灣鳳梨後;本文以Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)模型與Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL)模型,及2005年8月至2023年5月的月資料進行分析。探討各階段國內批發市場鳳梨的價量關係、受到中國進口措施的影響、以及各階段國產鳳梨產地與批發地之間的價格傳遞效果與價量的變化。研究結果顯示,中菲產生主權爭議至中國暫停我國鳳梨輸入前(第三階段),臺灣鳳梨批發市場交易價量與外銷至中國出口量間不具長期共整合關係,顯示該階段資料僅適用於短期模型;此階段鳳梨外銷至中國的量變動,對批發市場交易價格正向影響。其他一、二、四個階段則適用於長期與短期模型,其中在第二階段,鳳梨批發市場交易價格短期受鳳梨外銷至中國量批發市場交易量變動對稱(變動幅度一樣)的負向影響。而長期則是受鳳梨外銷量與批發市場交易量變動對稱之影響,在長期鳳梨外銷至中國的量變動,對批發市場交易價格正向影響。在臺北一、二批發市場中,鳳梨交易價量與外銷至中國出口量在四個階段均具有長期共整合關係,第一至三階段鳳梨批發市場交易價格短期受鳳梨外銷至中國的量非對稱的影響;在短期,第一階段鳳梨外銷至中國量變化對鳳梨批發市場交易價格有正向影響;第二階段鳳梨外銷至中國量變化對鳳梨批發市場交易價格有負向影響。在長期,第二階段鳳梨外銷至中國量變化,對批發市場交易價格有正向影響。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | Pineapple is the highest yielding and most valuable fruit crop in Taiwan. In 2021, pineapple production reached approximately 400,000 metric tons, with a total value of 8.9 billion New Taiwan Dollars. Taiwan has been exporting pineapples to China since 2005, with approximately ninety percent of pineapple exports directed to China between 2011 and 2020. However, China temporarily suspended imports of Taiwanese pineapples in March 2021. This suspension not only led to a significant decline in export volume but also resulted in a notable drop in domestic pineapple production and value in 2022. Consequently, this had a ripple effect on the domestic pineapple industry, impacting both production and prices. Given these circumstances, this study aims to investigate the impact of China's import measures on the prices of Taiwanese pineapples.
The export of Taiwanese pineapples to China can be divided into four stages: the first stage from August 2005, when China exempted import duties on Taiwanese pineapples, to December 2013 before the ECFA agreement came into effect; the second stage from January 2011 after the ECFA agreement was in effect until December 2013 before the China-Philippines sovereignty dispute arose; the third stage from January 2014 after the China-Philippines sovereignty dispute until February 2021 before China suspended imports of Taiwanese pineapples; and the fourth stage after China's suspension of Taiwanese pineapple imports from March 2021 onwards. This study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) models to analyze monthly data spanning from August 2005 to May 2023. The research examines the price-quantity relationship in the domestic wholesale pineapple market during each stage, the impact of China's import measures, and the price transmission effect along with changes in price and quantity between domestic pineapple farm gate and wholesale markets. The results indicate that there is no long-term cointegration relationship between the wholesale price-quantity of Taiwanese pineapples and the export volume to China during the period from the China-Philippines sovereignty dispute to the suspension of Taiwanese pineapple imports by China (the third stage). This suggests that the data in this stage are only suitable for short-term modeling. Changes in the export volume of pineapples to China during this stage have a positive impact on wholesale prices. The first, second, and fourth stages are applicable to both long-term and short-term models. In the second stage, short-term fluctuations in the wholesale price of pineapples are negatively affected by symmetric (same magnitude) changes in the export volume and wholesale volume of pineapples to China. In the long term, the impact is influenced by symmetric changes in the export volume of pineapples and wholesale volume, resulting in a positive effect on wholesale prices. In Taipei's wholesale markets, there is a long-term cointegration between pineapple price, quantity, and export volume to China in all four stages. During the first to third stages, short-term fluctuations in the wholesale price of pineapples are asymmetrically affected by changes in the export volume of pineapples to China. In the short term, changes in the export volume of pineapples to China have a positive impact on the wholesale price in the first stage, while they have a negative impact in the second stage. In the long term, changes in the export volume of pineapples to China in the second stage have a positive impact on wholesale prices. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Submitted by admin ntu (admin@lib.ntu.edu.tw) on 2023-10-03T17:04:46Z No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2023-10-03T17:04:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 摘要 i
Abstract ii 目錄 iv 表目錄 v 圖目錄 vii 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 研究架構與流程 5 第二章 臺灣鳳梨產銷概況 7 第一節 臺灣鳳梨生產概況 7 第二節 臺灣鳳梨批發市場交易概況 13 第三節 臺灣鳳梨出口概況 20 第三章 文獻回顧 28 第一節 農產品非關稅貿易措施對農產品價格影響 28 第二節 農產品價格傳遞效率 31 第三節 小結 34 第四章 理論模型與方法 38 第一節 Pearson相關係數 38 第二節 單根檢定 38 第三節 ARDL模型及邊界檢定 40 第四節 NARDL 模型 43 第五章 實證結果與分析 45 第一節 資料說明與預期影響 45 第二節 相關性分析 58 第六章 結論及建議 132 第一節 研究結論 132 第二節 研究建議 139 參考文獻 141 | - |
dc.language.iso | zh_TW | - |
dc.title | 中國的農產品進口措施對臺灣鳳梨價格影響之研究 | zh_TW |
dc.title | The Impacts of Chinese Agricultural Import Measures on the Pineapple Prices in Taiwan | en |
dc.type | Thesis | - |
dc.date.schoolyear | 111-2 | - |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | - |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 詹滿色;陳雅惠 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | Man-ser Jan;Ya-Hui Chen | en |
dc.subject.keyword | 金鑽鳳梨,價格傳遞,兩岸貿易,進口措施,NARDL 模型, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | Golden Diamond Pineapple,Price Transmission,Cross-Strait Trade,Import Measures,NARDL Model, | en |
dc.relation.page | 144 | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202304057 | - |
dc.rights.note | 未授權 | - |
dc.date.accepted | 2023-08-14 | - |
dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | - |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 農業經濟學系 | - |
顯示於系所單位: | 農業經濟學系 |
文件中的檔案:
檔案 | 大小 | 格式 | |
---|---|---|---|
ntu-111-2.pdf 目前未授權公開取用 | 1.85 MB | Adobe PDF |
系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。