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Title: | 台灣電信服務廠商3G發展策略 |
Authors: | Long Chen 陳龍 |
Advisor: | 湯明哲 |
Keyword: | 價值網,情境分析,第三代行動通訊技術, Value Net,Scenario Analysis,3G,WLAN,WiMAX, |
Publication Year : | 2005 |
Degree: | 碩士 |
Abstract: | 行動電信業的產值,為各業者的單一用戶貢獻度( ARPU)乘上用戶數。隨著行動電信服務的普及率日益擴增,近年來ARPU的成長日趨緩慢,其中語音與數據營收的比率更是跌跌不休。電信業者原本希冀以第三代(3G)行動通訊技術來擴充ARPU,提供用戶高行動性與高速率的無線寬頻服務,來滿足多媒體應用的通訊需求。但近年來因競標頻段的高執照費、無線寬頻的規格紛爭、與居高不下的軟硬體投資等限制,使得3G發展未如預期。3G反而被評為繼.com之後21世紀最大的科技產業泡沫。
近年來,連結眾多區域無線通訊熱點(hotspot),而提供無線上網服務的公眾無線網路(PWLAN),成為無線通訊服務裡的後起之秀。隨著終端設備普及、費率下降以及主要電信業參與WLAN服務的趨勢下,預計2007年全球用戶數將成長至7,260萬戶,營收也將成長至6.08億美元。雖然目前3G與WLAN兩種技術平台各有其主力聯盟與市場,但3G的發展趨緩給予PWLAN有可能利用網際語音(VoIP)的普及與如 WiMAX等行動規格的開發,取代3G行動電信業者未來的市場空間,這些問題都是目前經營電信服務之業者無可避免的問題。 本研究目的在探討台灣電信服務廠商發展3G受到新興技術與經營模式的影響,並以情境分析法作為描述台灣電信產業未來發展之可能情境。本研究以蒐集次級資料與專家訪談歸納出影響未來台灣電信服務廠商中的重要不確定性因素,包括:1. 技術發展;2. 應用服務需求變化需求;3. 替代技術與經營模式;4.政府態度。 繼而將這些影響因素之中衝擊程度高且具高度不確定性程度者,發展未來電信服務可能得情境發展方面,並從技術變化、需求浮現以及競爭態勢三個不確定軸面,分別建立了天下爭雄、3G寡頭壟斷、停滯不前與新時代的萌芽等四種未來可能情境。 除了分別針對各個情境探討台灣電信廠商所面臨的機會、威脅之外,在論文末章部分,經由情境分析法發展出對我國電信服務廠商提出具體可行之策略發展,建議電信廠商可運用資源並建議電信廠商長握影響情境發展的三大不確定性因素。發展「穩健」、「可行」的發展策略,以朝向最佳化情境的3G寡頭壟斷未來。 (一)、技術變化面:主動參與WiMAX技術發展與規劃,積極瞭解技術發展的狀況,以作為佈局策略的依據。 (二)、需求層面:主動跨足內容服務與影響設備製造面,並以建構封閉式內容平台與客製化手機兩大策略發展競爭優勢。 (三)、競爭態勢:成立獨立單位收納WiMAX,使WiMAX成為基礎網路的互補性資產。 This thesis is for the purpose of discussing how emerging technology and business model: WiMAX and PWLAN affect the telecommunication company strategy making when they carry out 3G. The research applies Scenario analysis method as the research technique to descript the possible situation about the future telecommunication-industry. The research visit from the massive industry secondary material as well as with the industry expert's depth interview to avoid the important and extreme opinions and situation is neglected. After analyzing the collecting data, the research tries to identify the important uncertainty factors which may affect and construct the possible situations. This research finds that the most important uncertainty factors of the tele- communication industry development include: 1.The technology develop of 3G and WiMAX. 2. The variation of demanding on application service.3.The emerging technology and business model.4.The intimidation of government. Then, constructing three axes: the technical change, the demand change as well as the industrial competition changes to establish four kind of future possible industries scenario includes: 1.the fair competitions; 2.the oligopoly of 3G; 3.The stagnation of market development; 4.The emerging the new era. Carry on, the research focus on the Optimistic situation: The oligopoly of 3G to suggest the feasible strategy development suggestion by scenario analysis method includes: 1. Participating the WiMAX technology development and planning actively as a guide of technology trend to layout the 3G strategy. 2. Vertical integration into the device manufacturing and content/service industry to construct close platform and customize handsets. 3. Establishing the independent units to absorb the emerging technology: WiMAX. to make the WiMAX as a complementary wireless board band asset. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/36025 |
Fulltext Rights: | 有償授權 |
Appears in Collections: | 國際企業學系 |
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