企業擴張適當性的研究－以敏盛綜合醫院1996年經國院區興建案為例

Abstract

企業擬定資本企劃投資案時，勢必於投資前編撰營運計畫書；其目的不僅是向投資人求取資金，也對投資標的有更深入的評估與了解。藉由計畫書的編寫，審視投資機會是否值得立即把握，或靜觀其變等待適當時機時再一舉成擒。 營運計畫書的重要性不言可喻。但多數企業卻將其作為說服投資人投入資金的工具，鮮少以務實的評估數據切實分析企劃案將面臨的挑戰與可能的不利威脅。對於未來營運成長的估計若過度樂觀，將來所面對的不僅是營運不佳的後果，甚至有可能破產倒閉而退出市場。而關乎營運計畫書估計的切實與否，實則與其財務預測模型有極大的關連。好的估計，在於其財務預測模型必須與其投資的企劃案具備連動性，在此連動關係之下，無論企業投入多少資金或擴充多大產能，皆能由此財務模型中一窺未來營運成長的概略面貌。 本研究採取「個案研究法」，以1996年敏盛綜合醫院營運計畫書撰寫為基礎，設計連動式之「財務純益率模型」，採用模擬方式進行敏感性分析與若干情境的財務試算，完成本研究重要之分析數據。本研究基於財務預測模擬方法收集的數據，來實際探討財務預測模型與投資連動之重要性，同時以本個案研究的財務預測與2002年之後的實際狀況做為具體比較的參考，得出深具一般性的重要結論，堪提供其他企業未來投資決策之參考。綜合本研究的重大結論如下： 1.審慎合理的財務預估有助企業制定更明智的決策。 2.運用財務模型評估欲投資之企劃案規模，以適當資金達到投資目的。 3.企業必須在追求成長與量力而為之間謀求平衡。

When the enterprise will draw up the capital investment project, it inevitably will compose a business plan before the investment. Its goal is not only to ask the investor for the fund, also to have a more thorough understanding and assessment. By drafting the business plan, the enterprise carefully examines the investment opportunities to see whether it is worth taking, or observing until the appropriate moment. The importance of business plan does not need further explanation. But most enterprises actually take it as a tool to raise capital, despite the shortage of comprehensive analysis. Too optimistic about the future may face bankruptcy risk or market withdrawal. The assessment of business plan is strongly related to the financial forecasting model. In fact, a good assessment depends on the relevance between the financial forecasting model and the investment project. This research adopts the case study method. It takes the year 1996 business plan of Min-Sheng hospital as the analysis material and breeds a financial model of net benefit rate which may facilitate the sensitive analyses by ARENA simulation. Based on the data collected from the ARENA simulation, the discussion will be drawn up on the relevance between the financial forecasting model and the investment project. And comparison of the case study result and its actual operation of Min-Sheng Hospital since 2002 will induce a useful reference in the decision- making of further investment. The significant conclusions of this research are as following: 1.A careful financial assessment helps the enterprise make a wiser decision. 2.The financial forecasting model will help determine the investment scale. 3.The enterprise has to strike a balance between the growth and its capacity.