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標題: | 我國後京都氣候體制之研析 Options for Taiwan's climate regime in the post-2012 era |
作者: | Wei-Ming Huang 黃偉鳴 |
指導教授: | 李慧梅 |
關鍵字: | 京都議定書,後京都,排放交易,氣候體制, Kyoto Protocol,post-2012,emissions trading scheme,climate regime, |
出版年 : | 2009 |
學位: | 博士 |
摘要: | 面對全球氣候變遷之威脅,聯合國於1992年通過氣候變化綱要公約,隨後1997年再通過京都議定書,議定書於2005年生效。然而,京都議定書即將於2012年失效,各國政府正在努力尋求一個新協議來建構後京都的氣候體制。
儘管我國並未被京都議定書規範,然而近十年來每年能源燃燒二氧化碳排放量持續成長。我國無庸置疑的遭受到國內及國外的減量壓力。這研究的目的就是重新檢視現有政府因應氣候變遷之架構、評估可能潛在問題,提出後京都時期我國的氣候體制建議。 為了解能源燃燒排放二氧化碳未來趨勢,利用長期能源替代規劃系統(LEAP)模型分析在基準情景下,2020年二氧化碳排放量將從2000年216百萬公噸成長至442百萬公噸、2030年達到531百萬公噸。燃煤電廠將是未來最大的二氧化碳排放來源。此外,本研究也利用GACMO模型探討不同溫室氣體減量策略之成本有效性。 為因應國際後京都氣候體制發展,本研究提出分階段策略思維。第一階段是從現在到2020年,建議應依據成本制約概念下執行國內減量策略及排放交易制度;第二階段則是從2020年以後,我國應該藉由國際合作行動將國內排放交易制度與國際碳市場做一連節。 再者,本研究也認為每一個政府單位應該建構各排放部門之邊際減量成本曲線,並重新聚焦在公約所定義之成本有效性原則上執行各項溫室氣體減量措施。本研究也提出減量責任平等原則,認為我國溫室氣體減量目標初期可設定在2020年相較於基準情景削減10%,如果必要,可增加至30%。另外,根據國際執行排放交易制度經驗分析,本研究提出一個結合溫室氣體排放效能標準的新排放交易制度。此外,本研究也建議現行溫室氣體減量法草案應重新思考與現有能源法規結合以達成互補效果。 最後,本研究也利用環境顧志耐曲線假說重新檢視京都議定書,發現多數工業化國家並未發現具有顧志耐曲線之趨勢;換言之,將不易達到京都議定書所設定減量目標。假如國際社會將真的要檢討溫室氣體排放,現行國際氣候體制應該重新檢討,同時應大力推動國際合作機制。 Facing the threat of global climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992, followed in 1997 by the Kyoto Protocol, which has been in force since 2005. However, the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012, and governments are scrambling to agree a new treaty to establish post-2012 climate regime. Even though Taiwan has no commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, its annual energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have been on an increasing trend for decades. It is only natural that Taiwan is facing increasing domestic and international pressure to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The purpose of this study is to reexamine the existing governmental framework for addressing climate change, evaluate potential problems and propose recommendations of a domestic climate regime in the post-2012 era. In order to estimate the future trend for energy-related CO2 emissions in Taiwan, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model has been adopted in this study. The LEAP model simulation shows that CO2 emissions from fuel combustion will increase from 216 million tones in 2000 to 442 million tones by 2020, and 531 million tones by 2030 in the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. That is, coal-burning power plants will be the most important source of energy for Taiwan in the future. Therefore, the Greenhouse Gas Costing Model (GACMO) was selected to analyze the cost effectiveness of various GHG reduction strategies in this study. A stepwise strategic thinking for the linking the international post-2012 climate regime is developed. The GHG reduction policy should be implemented in two stages. Phase 1, from now to 2020, implements the domestic GHG reduction measures and introduces the cap-and-trade scheme based on the cost containment concept. Phase II which is to start in the year 2020, will strive to link the domestic cap-and-trade scheme with international carbon market through coordinated international action. Moreover, every governmental agency should set up appropriate the marginal abatement cost curves of every emission sector and refocus on implementation of reduction strategies in the principle of cost effectiveness, defined in the UNFCCC. According to the equity principle in reduction responsibility proposed by this research, the author also recommended setting the reduction target for carbon dioxide emissions at 10% below the BAU scenario in 2020 and increasing reductions to 30%, if necessary. Judging from the international experiences of implementing emissions trading scheme, the study proposed a new emissions trading scheme by combining the GHG emissions performance standard (EPS) regulation and the cap-and-trade scheme. In addition, the author has recommended that the GHG Reduction Bill should be integrated with other relevant existing legislation to achieve complementary effects. Finally, this research also found that for industrialized countries with better economic status, most of them do not follow the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) trend. The results from this study also indicated that the 38 industrialized countries are unable to meet their targets under the Kyoto Protocol within the specified time period. If the international community truly wants to reduce the GHG emissions, the effectiveness of the existing international framework for emissions reduction needs to be reconsidered seriously, and the global cooperation mechanism also needs to be greatly enhanced. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/22845 |
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