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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 李慧梅 | |
dc.contributor.author | Wei-Ming Huang | en |
dc.contributor.author | 黃偉鳴 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-08T04:30:27Z | - |
dc.date.copyright | 2010-01-11 | |
dc.date.issued | 2009 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2009-12-30 | |
dc.identifier.citation | [英文部分]
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dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/22845 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 面對全球氣候變遷之威脅,聯合國於1992年通過氣候變化綱要公約,隨後1997年再通過京都議定書,議定書於2005年生效。然而,京都議定書即將於2012年失效,各國政府正在努力尋求一個新協議來建構後京都的氣候體制。
儘管我國並未被京都議定書規範,然而近十年來每年能源燃燒二氧化碳排放量持續成長。我國無庸置疑的遭受到國內及國外的減量壓力。這研究的目的就是重新檢視現有政府因應氣候變遷之架構、評估可能潛在問題,提出後京都時期我國的氣候體制建議。 為了解能源燃燒排放二氧化碳未來趨勢,利用長期能源替代規劃系統(LEAP)模型分析在基準情景下,2020年二氧化碳排放量將從2000年216百萬公噸成長至442百萬公噸、2030年達到531百萬公噸。燃煤電廠將是未來最大的二氧化碳排放來源。此外,本研究也利用GACMO模型探討不同溫室氣體減量策略之成本有效性。 為因應國際後京都氣候體制發展,本研究提出分階段策略思維。第一階段是從現在到2020年,建議應依據成本制約概念下執行國內減量策略及排放交易制度;第二階段則是從2020年以後,我國應該藉由國際合作行動將國內排放交易制度與國際碳市場做一連節。 再者,本研究也認為每一個政府單位應該建構各排放部門之邊際減量成本曲線,並重新聚焦在公約所定義之成本有效性原則上執行各項溫室氣體減量措施。本研究也提出減量責任平等原則,認為我國溫室氣體減量目標初期可設定在2020年相較於基準情景削減10%,如果必要,可增加至30%。另外,根據國際執行排放交易制度經驗分析,本研究提出一個結合溫室氣體排放效能標準的新排放交易制度。此外,本研究也建議現行溫室氣體減量法草案應重新思考與現有能源法規結合以達成互補效果。 最後,本研究也利用環境顧志耐曲線假說重新檢視京都議定書,發現多數工業化國家並未發現具有顧志耐曲線之趨勢;換言之,將不易達到京都議定書所設定減量目標。假如國際社會將真的要檢討溫室氣體排放,現行國際氣候體制應該重新檢討,同時應大力推動國際合作機制。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | Facing the threat of global climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992, followed in 1997 by the Kyoto Protocol, which has been in force since 2005. However, the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012, and governments are scrambling to agree a new treaty to establish post-2012 climate regime.
Even though Taiwan has no commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, its annual energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have been on an increasing trend for decades. It is only natural that Taiwan is facing increasing domestic and international pressure to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The purpose of this study is to reexamine the existing governmental framework for addressing climate change, evaluate potential problems and propose recommendations of a domestic climate regime in the post-2012 era. In order to estimate the future trend for energy-related CO2 emissions in Taiwan, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model has been adopted in this study. The LEAP model simulation shows that CO2 emissions from fuel combustion will increase from 216 million tones in 2000 to 442 million tones by 2020, and 531 million tones by 2030 in the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. That is, coal-burning power plants will be the most important source of energy for Taiwan in the future. Therefore, the Greenhouse Gas Costing Model (GACMO) was selected to analyze the cost effectiveness of various GHG reduction strategies in this study. A stepwise strategic thinking for the linking the international post-2012 climate regime is developed. The GHG reduction policy should be implemented in two stages. Phase 1, from now to 2020, implements the domestic GHG reduction measures and introduces the cap-and-trade scheme based on the cost containment concept. Phase II which is to start in the year 2020, will strive to link the domestic cap-and-trade scheme with international carbon market through coordinated international action. Moreover, every governmental agency should set up appropriate the marginal abatement cost curves of every emission sector and refocus on implementation of reduction strategies in the principle of cost effectiveness, defined in the UNFCCC. According to the equity principle in reduction responsibility proposed by this research, the author also recommended setting the reduction target for carbon dioxide emissions at 10% below the BAU scenario in 2020 and increasing reductions to 30%, if necessary. Judging from the international experiences of implementing emissions trading scheme, the study proposed a new emissions trading scheme by combining the GHG emissions performance standard (EPS) regulation and the cap-and-trade scheme. In addition, the author has recommended that the GHG Reduction Bill should be integrated with other relevant existing legislation to achieve complementary effects. Finally, this research also found that for industrialized countries with better economic status, most of them do not follow the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) trend. The results from this study also indicated that the 38 industrialized countries are unable to meet their targets under the Kyoto Protocol within the specified time period. If the international community truly wants to reduce the GHG emissions, the effectiveness of the existing international framework for emissions reduction needs to be reconsidered seriously, and the global cooperation mechanism also needs to be greatly enhanced. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-08T04:30:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-98-D92541014-1.pdf: 1276614 bytes, checksum: 12ff9333a5c0ca493295591d7dc921aa (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 目錄
口試委員會審定書 誌謝………………………………………………………………i 中文摘要………………………………………………………………………………ii 英文摘要………………………………………………………………………………iii 第一章 前言…………………………………………………………………………1 1-1 研究緣起……………………………………………………………………1 1-2 研究內容及目的……………………………………………………………2 第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………………………3 2-1 氣候體制之發展……………………………………………………………3 2-1-1 聯合國氣候變化綱要公約……………………………………………3 2-1-2 京都議定書……………………………………………………………4 2-1-3 後京都(post-2012)談判發展…………………………………………7 2-1-4 氣候體制與碳市場(carbon market)…………………………………8 2-1-4-1 區域及各國碳市場經驗…………………………………………9 2-1-4-2 排放權分配之爭議………………………………………………10 2-2 氣候體制之核心議題………………………………………………………11 2-2-1 溫室氣體減量目標……………………………………………………13 2-2-2 溫室氣體減量成本……………………………………………………15 2-2-3 可比較性:MRV之重要………………………………………………21 2-3 我國現行氣候體制之分析…………………………………………………23 2-3-1 經濟、能源與環境現況………………………………………………23 2-3-1-1 經濟發展與能源消費……………………………………………23 2-3-1-2 能源供應與消費結構……………………………………………24 2-3-1-3溫室氣體排放清冊……………………………………25 2-3-1-4 燃料燃燒排放的二氧化碳………………………………………27 2-3-2 氣候體制與政府治理(governmental governance)…………………28 2-3-2-1 跨部會組織………………………………………………………28 2-3-2-2 召開全國能源會議………………………………………………29 2-3-3 溫室氣體減量策略……………………………………………………29 2-3-3-1 變動的溫室氣體減量目標………………………………………30 2-3-3-2 邊際減量成本之估計……………………………………………31 2-3-4 規劃碳市場:制定溫室氣體減量法…………………………………32 2-3-4-1 國際訂定專法之啟示……………………………………………32 2-3-4-2 溫室氣體減量法(草案)內容……………………………………33 2-3-4-3 立法過程中不同團體的觀點……………………………………34 2-4 小結…………………………………………………………………………35 第三章 研究方法……………………………………………………………………36 3-1 質化分析(qualitative research)…………………………………………36 3-2 量化分析(quantitative research)…………………………………37 3-2-1 能源模型種類…………………………………………………………38 3-2-2 長期能源替代規劃系統(LEAP)………………………………38 3-2-3 GACMO模型…………………………………………………44 第四章 我國氣候體制分析檢討及規劃……………………………………………48 4-1 模型運算之結果……………………………………………………………48 4-1-1 LEAP模型:基準情景之評估…………………………………………48 4-2-2 GACMO模型:能源策略之減量評估…………………………………50 4-2-2-1 減量成本…………………………………………………………50 4-2-2-2 減量潛力…………………………………………………………50 4-2 我國現行氣候體制檢討……………………………………………………54 4-2-1 遵守公約方面(complying with the Convention)……………………55 4-2-2 部會協調方面(interagency Cooperation)…………………………56 4-2-3 成本有效方面(Cost-effectiveness)…………………………………57 4-3我國後京都氣候體制之規劃………………………………………………59 4-3-1 二階段策略思維………………………………………………………59 4-3-1-1 成本制約期(Cost containment):從現在到2020年……………60 4-3-1-2協同國際行動期(Coordinated international action):2020年後‥61 4-3-2 調整政府治理…………………………………………………………63 4-3-3 減量目標規劃…………………………………………………………64 4-3-3-1 減量幅度相等………………………………………………………64 4-3-3-2 邊際減量成本相等…………………………………………………66 4-3-3-3 溫室氣體減量目標建議……………………………………………66 4-3-4 碳市場檢討規劃………………………………………………………67 4-4 強化能源安全………………………………………………………………69 第五章 再論京都議定書………………………………………………………………71 5-1環境顧志耐曲線(Environmental Kuznets Curve, EKC)…………………71 5-2 附件一國家與EKC…………………………………………………76 5-3 計量方法……………………………………………………………………79 5-4 計量分析結果………………………………………………………………81 5-5 再論京都議定書問題………………………………………………………83 5-5-1 經濟成長與溫室氣體排放兩者分離(decoupling)的迷思……………83 5-5-2新從眾行為現象(new conformity phenomena)………………………84 5-5-3 全球行動的再思考(rethinking the collective action)………………85 第六章 結論與建議…………………………………………………………………86 6-1 結論…………………………………………………………………………86 6-2 建議…………………………………………………………………………87 參考文獻………………………………………………………………………………88 英文部分…………………………………………………………………………88 中文部分…………………………………………………………………………102 著作………………………………………………………………………………103 圖目錄 圖2-1各主要碳排放交易市場之發展時程……………………………………………10 圖2-2總減量成本、平均減量成本與邊際減量成本圖形……………………………15 圖2-3歐盟排放交易市場歷史交易量及價格…………………………………………18 圖2-4主要國家/區域邊際減量成本圖………………………………………………19 圖2-5全球基準情境下2030年溫室氣體減量措施及減量成本曲線………………20 圖2-6 開發中國家3階段之減量驗證程序……………………………………………22 圖2-7 1990至2005年我國GDP、能源消費與人口成長關連………………………24 圖2-8 1985至2005年我國能源供應結構之趨勢……………………………25 圖2-9 2005年我國溫室氣體排放結構………………………………………………26 圖2-10 各部門燃料燃燒CO2之排放占比演變圖(不含用電排放CO2) ……………27 圖2-11 歷次全國能源會議之溫室氣體減量目標比較圖………………………………31 圖2-12溫室氣體減量法草案中三階段減量……………………………………………34 圖3-1 LEAP模型運算介面…………………………………………………40 圖3-2 LEAP模型能源架構…………………………………………………40 圖3-3 建構邊際減量成本曲線示意圖…………………………………………………45 圖4-1 LEAP模型推估燃料燃燒排放二氧化碳趨勢…………………………………49 圖4-2 LEAP模型推估不同經濟成長率下二氧化碳排放趨勢………………………49 圖4-3 2010年我國能源部門二氧化碳減量成本曲線………………………………51 圖4-4 2020年我國能源部門二氧化碳減量成本曲線………………………………52 圖4-5 2030年我國能源部門二氧化碳減量成本曲線………………………………53 圖4-6 循環式之氣候政策………………………………………………………………54 圖4-7 碳市場連結三種方式……………………………………………………………62 圖4-8 我國比照附件B國家承擔減量相當之示意圖…………………………………65 圖4-9 溫室氣體減量法中總量管制及交易之分配作法………………………………67 圖4-10 結合能源效能標準及排放交易制度概念圖……………………………………68 圖4-11整合相關環境與能源法規之概念圖……………………………………………70 圖5-1 環境顧志耐曲線與生態閥值……………………………………………………72 圖5-2 中國分析碳排放三階段高峰發展示意圖………………………………………76 圖5-3 附件一國家人均溫室氣體排放量與人均GDP關係(1990至2003年) ………77 圖5-4 經濟轉型國家人均溫室氣體排放量與人均GDP關係(1990至2003年) ……78 圖5-5 Croatia二氧化碳排放量趨勢圖………………………………………………78 圖5-6 附件二國家人均溫室氣體排放量與人均GDP關係(1990至2003年) ………79 表目錄 表2-1附件B國家在2010年達成京都議定書規範之減量幅度比較……………………5 表2-2 穩定不同大氣溫室氣體濃度所對應附件一國家與非附件一國家之減量需求‥14 表2-3 主要國家2010年達成京都議定書規範之邊際減量成本(不含排放交易)比較…18 表2-4 我國能源/經濟/環境指標總表(2005)………………………………………26 表2-5 MARKAL- MACRO模型評估各項減量目標之減量成本……………………32 表3-1 LEAP模型能源需求部門之結構分類……………………………………………41 表3-2 基準情景之GDP、人口及戶數主要假設…………………………………………42 表3-4 工業部門能源需求年平均成長率…………………………………………………43 表3-5 交通部門能源需求年平均成長率………………………………………………43 表3-6 進口能源價格推估…………………………………………………………………47 表4-1 2010年我國能源部門二氧化碳減量成本及潛力表………………………………51 表4-2 2020年我國能源部門二氧化碳減量成本及潛力表………………………………52 表4-3 2030年我國能源部門二氧化碳減量成本及潛力表………………………………53 表4-4 各國國家型氣候變遷計畫…………………………………………………………63 表5-1 附件二國家溫室氣體與GDP之環境顧志耐曲線假說分析表……………………82 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 我國後京都氣候體制之研析 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Options for Taiwan's climate regime in the post-2012 era | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 98-1 | |
dc.description.degree | 博士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 於幼華,徐世勳,章裕民,范建得,楊之遠 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 京都議定書,後京都,排放交易,氣候體制, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | Kyoto Protocol,post-2012,emissions trading scheme,climate regime, | en |
dc.relation.page | 103 | |
dc.rights.note | 未授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2010-01-03 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 工學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 環境工程學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 環境工程學研究所 |
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