銀行出售不良債權回收率差異之影響因素-以國內某銀行為例

Abstract

本文係以國內某家金融機構，在2002年至2010年間所出售不良債權計5,186筆資料為分析對象，採用兩樣本平均數檢定及變異數分析，以了解銀行出售不良債權回收率差異的影響因素。由實證結果顯示，「出售債權種類」、「借戶現況」、「有無擔保品」、「擔保品（不動產）用途」、「擔保品（不動產）座落」、「借戶聯絡情形」、「逾期帳齡」、「有無保證人」、「擔保品座落地區當地法院法拍情形」、「出售分行之逾放比率」及「出售年度」等11項變數與回收率有顯著相關。 本文進一步透過多元線性迴歸分析，就「出售債權種類」、「有無擔保品」、「借戶聯絡情形」、「逾期帳齡」、「有無保證人」、「出售年度」等6項變數進行檢定。檢定結果顯示，除「有無保證人」對回收率則具有顯著負相關外，其餘五個自變數，對回收率均具有顯著正相關。就影響程度而言，以「有無擔保品」對回收率的影響性最大，次為「出售年度」，再次為「逾期帳齡」，接續為「有無保證人」、「出售債權種類」及「借戶聯絡情形」等三項變數。 以高回收率案件與低回收率案件相較，高回收率案件之個人戶比例較高，企業戶停業比例及個人戶失業比例較低、不動產擔保比例較高、擔保品中住宅區比例較高，農業區比例較低、擔保品座落於北區之比率較高、借戶可聯絡之比例較高、逾期帳齡較短、無保證人案件之比率較高、擔保品當地法院拍定次數較低、高逾放比分行案件較多及出售年度之外在經濟環境較佳。低回收率案件則與前述情形相反。

In this research, we collected 5,186 pieces of data from a bank in Taiwan from 2002 to 2010 and used t-test and Analysis of Variance（ANOVA）to analyze factors influencing the recovery rate of banks by selling NPLs. The results of our anlaysis suggest that the following factors have a significant correlation with the recovery rate : 'kind of borrower,' 'borrower’s situation,' 'with real-estate collateral,' 'real-estate collateral use,' 'real-estate collateral location,' 'may contact borrower,' 'over-due aging,' 'guarantor,' 'auction status,' 'NPL Ratio of branch sales,' and 'year of sale.' Analyzing influencing factors by multiple linear regression on 'kind of borrower,' 'with real-estate collateral,' 'may contact borrower,' 'over-due aging', 'guarantor,' and 'year of sale', we found that the 'guarantor' had a significant negative correlation with the recovery rate while the others had a significant positive correlation with the recovery rate. Moreover, the study showed that the most influential factor was 'real-estate collateral,' followed by 'year of sale,' 'over-due aging,' 'guarantor, ' 'kind of borrower,' and 'may contact borrower.' Compared with the low recovery rate cases, the high recovery rate cases show the following characteristics: a higher proportion of individuals; a lower proportion of unemployment and ceased operation; a higher proportion secured by real estate collateral; a higher proportion of real estate in residential areas and a lower proportion in agricultural areas; a higher proportion of real estate collateral located in northern areas; a higher proportion of may contact borrower; short overdue aging; without guarantor; easier to auction; better economic environment in the year of sale.