美國層級秩序中的政策響應：第三方國家如何回應美國對中科技出口管制

Abstract

在美中競爭的背景下，科技出口管制已成為近年美國遏制中國科技發展的主要政策工具。然而，第三方國家也成為中國規避美國管制政策之主要管道，此現象不僅凸顯第三方國家在出口管制體系中的關鍵地位，亦反映其在美中競爭的政治立場與選擇。本研究以層級理論(Hierarchy Theory)為基礎，建構科技出口管制層級指數，旨在系統性解釋第三方國家為何以及如何響應美國對中國的科技出口管制政策。本研究主張，與美國層級關係較緊密、政策制定受其影響較深的國家，將更傾向響應美國對中國發起的科技出口管制政策，共同限制中國的科技發展。 本研究採用混合研究法，蒐集2017至2025年間全球共計1,497件科技出口管制政策，透過量化分析檢驗層級理論對第三方國家政策響應行為的效果，並進一步選取德國與澳洲作為個案，分析其政策決策過程中的因果機制。研究發現，當美國出口管制政策所連結的議題能嵌入既有國際建制所形塑的廣義政策脈絡，例如新冠肺炎與俄烏戰爭等情境，此時美國的層級權威可以顯著且穩定地解釋第三方國家的政策響應行為。換言之，與美國層級關係較接近的第三方國家傾向響應美國政策；然而，當美國的管制政策缺乏國際建制支持，層級理論的效果在拜登時期失效。其主因在於第三方國家對中國的高度出口依賴，削弱了層級關係所能發揮的政策驅動效果。同時，拜登政府採取的精準管制策略亦提高第三方國家的響應成本。而前述的量化分析結果與推論，亦在德國與澳洲的個案研究中獲得經驗支持。 本文之研究成果兼具理論、方法與政策三層次貢獻。首先，本文修正層級理論，指出層級權威並非在所有政策情境下皆能有效約束第三方國家的政策行為。其次，本文建構之第三方國家出口管制遵循率資料庫，系統性呈現各國對美國科技出口管制政策的響應樣態，為出口管制研究提供新的量化分析基礎，亦可作為企業評估地緣政治風險與供應鏈配置的重要參考。最後，研究結果顯示中國與第三方國家的經濟整合正在削減美國的層級權威。其政策意涵在於，若美國欲維繫其技術領導地位，其出口管制政策需結合非紅供應鏈的建構，並透過具備成本分攤機制的管制合作安排，以降低第三方國家的政策響應成本。

In the context of U.S.–China competition, technology export controls have become a policy instrument that the United States seeks to constrain China’s technological development. At the same time, third-party countries have emerged as key channels through which China can circumvent U.S. controls, highlighting their strategic position within the export control regime and their political choices to great power competition. Drawing on hierarchy theory, this study develops a Technology Export Control Hierarchy Index to explain why and how third-party countries respond to U.S. export control policies against China. Using a mixed-methods design, the study analyzes 1,497 technology export control policies adopted worldwide between 2017 and 2025 and complements the quantitative analysis with case studies of Germany and Australia to examine causal mechanisms. The findings show that U.S. hierarchical authority exerts a significant and stable effect on third-party responses when export controls are embedded in broader policy contexts shaped by existing international institutions, such as those related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. By contrast, when export control policies lack such institutional support, the explanatory power of hierarchical authority weakens markedly during the Biden administration, largely due to third-party countries’ high export dependence on China and the increased compliance costs associated with more targeted control strategies. This study makes theoretical, methodological, and policy contributions. First, it revises hierarchy theory by demonstrating that hierarchical authority does not uniformly constrain third-party countries’ policy behavior. Second, this study constructs an original dataset on third-party countries’ export control compliance, which systematically captures national responses to U.S. technology export control policies and provides a new quantitative foundation for research on export controls. This dataset also offers a useful reference for firms assessing geopolitical risks and supply chain configurations. Finally, the findings show that deepening economic integration between China and third-party countries has eroded U.S. hierarchical authority. The policy implication is that if the United States seeks to maintain its technological leadership, future export control policies should be coupled with the construction of non–China supply chains and institutionalized cooperation arrangements with cost-sharing mechanisms, in order to reduce the compliance costs borne by third-party countries.