論高齡化社會的教育政策與社會安全制度

Abstract

本文旨在探討高齡化社會下教育政策與養老金制度的關係。 我們利用一個內生化生育決策的三期疊代模型, 分析在不同的預期壽命與養老金所得替代率下, 實行公立教育體制、私立教育體制與補貼私立教育政策對經濟成長的影響。 結果發現若政府沒有實施「隨收隨付制」的養老金制度, 由於公立教育體制會使得家計單位錯估教養小孩的成本, 導致家計單位撫養過多小孩, 造成教育資源的稀釋, 故在此一情況下, 採行私立教育體制能得到較高的經濟成長。 但若政府實施「隨收隨付制」的養老金制度, 現在撫養較多小孩意味著未來能擁有較多勞動力去分擔養老金的稅負, 則何種教育體制能夠誘發較高的經濟成長, 取決於這個經濟社會的平均預期壽命與所採取的養老金政策, 我們發現由於公立教育體制或補助私立教育政策能鼓勵家計單位撫養較多小孩, 進而減低養老金稅率對經濟成長的負面影響。 故模擬結果發現當一個經濟社會擁有足夠高的平均預期壽命或養老金所得替代率, 公立教育體制或補助私立教育政策能導致較高的經濟成長。 因此, 我們建議政府當局若是要促進長期經濟成長, 必須同時考慮教育與養老金政策。

This paper studies the interaction between two main public policies,education and social security, in an aging economy. We compare the balanced growth rate between different education systems (a private education system, a public education system and a voucher program) at steady state with various life expectancies and pension replacement rates. The results suggest that if govenment does not implement pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security program, a private education system can induce higher growth at any degree of longevity. In contrast, as government implements PAYG social security program, which education systems can enhance economic growth depends on the life expectancy of an economy and the policy of pension benefit. Our calibrated results reveal that a public education system or a voucher program can yield higher growth than a private education system by encouraging parents to raise children and then reducing the adverse impact of PAYG social security on capital accumulation and growth when an economy with sufficiently high life expectancy and pension replacement ratio. The implication of our analysis indicates that in order to promote economic growth, policy makers should consider these two public policies jointly.