我國選舉之回溯性投票 - 2020年總統大選的空間分析

Abstract

2020 年的總統大選，許多研究證實了選民的投票行為容易受到國家認同、族 群認同的影響，然而本文旨在以客觀的經濟感受出發，根據回溯性投票的理論基 礎，分析我國選民的荷包變化感受對於投票行為的影響。

本文使用集體資料分析回溯性投票，以台澎 358 個鄉鎮市區作為觀察值，並 以空間分析進行研究。在控制了社會背景、族群認同、國家認同、版圖效果以及 空間自相關後，本研究將主軸聚焦於回溯性投票的分析以及空間異質的探索。

研究發現「所得變化」與執政黨得票率為顯著的正相關，驗證我國 2020 年 總統大選中回溯性投票的存在。最後，經由地理加權迴歸，發現「回溯性投票」 並非各地普遍的現象，乃為具有空間異質性的局部現象，以雲嘉、台南北部及高 雄山區為界，這些地區具有回溯性投票，以外的地區則不具有回溯性投票效果。

In the 2020 presidential election, numerous studies confirm that voting behavior is easily influenced by national and ethnic identity. However, this paper takes an objective approach based on economic perceptions. Using the theory of retrospective voting, it analyzes the impact of changes in voters' income on their voting behavior in Taiwan.

This study employs collective data analysis for retrospective voting, with 358 townships in Taiwan and Penghu as observation points, using spatial analysis. After controlling for social backgrounds, ethnic and national identity, territorial effect and spatial autocorrelation, the research focuses on the retrospective voting and spatial heterogeneity.

The study finds a significant positive correlation between income changes and the vote share of the ruling party, confirming the presence of retrospective voting in the 2020 presidential election in Taiwan. Finally, through geographic weighted regression, it is discovered that "retrospective voting" is not a universal phenomenon across all regions but rather a localized phenomenon with spatial heterogeneity. Areas such as Yunlin, Chiayi, northern Tainan, and the mountainous regions of Kaohsiung exhibit retrospective voting, while other areas do not show the retrospective voting effect.