請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件：
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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 鄧志松 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Chih-Sung Teng | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 葉欲禾 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author | Yu-Ho Yeh | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-08-15T17:20:27Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2023-11-09 | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2023-08-15 | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2023 | - |
| dc.date.submitted | 2023-08-07 | - |
| dc.identifier.citation | 一、中文參考資料
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| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/88679 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 2020 年的總統大選，許多研究證實了選民的投票行為容易受到國家認同、族 群認同的影響，然而本文旨在以客觀的經濟感受出發，根據回溯性投票的理論基 礎，分析我國選民的荷包變化感受對於投票行為的影響。
本文使用集體資料分析回溯性投票，以台澎 358 個鄉鎮市區作為觀察值，並 以空間分析進行研究。在控制了社會背景、族群認同、國家認同、版圖效果以及 空間自相關後，本研究將主軸聚焦於回溯性投票的分析以及空間異質的探索。 研究發現「所得變化」與執政黨得票率為顯著的正相關，驗證我國 2020 年 總統大選中回溯性投票的存在。最後，經由地理加權迴歸，發現「回溯性投票」 並非各地普遍的現象，乃為具有空間異質性的局部現象，以雲嘉、台南北部及高 雄山區為界，這些地區具有回溯性投票，以外的地區則不具有回溯性投票效果。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | In the 2020 presidential election, numerous studies confirm that voting behavior is easily influenced by national and ethnic identity. However, this paper takes an objective approach based on economic perceptions. Using the theory of retrospective voting, it analyzes the impact of changes in voters' income on their voting behavior in Taiwan.
This study employs collective data analysis for retrospective voting, with 358 townships in Taiwan and Penghu as observation points, using spatial analysis. After controlling for social backgrounds, ethnic and national identity, territorial effect and spatial autocorrelation, the research focuses on the retrospective voting and spatial heterogeneity. The study finds a significant positive correlation between income changes and the vote share of the ruling party, confirming the presence of retrospective voting in the 2020 presidential election in Taiwan. Finally, through geographic weighted regression, it is discovered that "retrospective voting" is not a universal phenomenon across all regions but rather a localized phenomenon with spatial heterogeneity. Areas such as Yunlin, Chiayi, northern Tainan, and the mountainous regions of Kaohsiung exhibit retrospective voting, while other areas do not show the retrospective voting effect. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Submitted by admin ntu (admin@lib.ntu.edu.tw) on 2023-08-15T17:20:27Z No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2023-08-15T17:20:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 目 錄
碩（博）士學位論文學術倫理聲明書 i 口試委員會審定書 ii 誌謝 iii 中文摘要 v 英文摘要 vi 目 錄 vii 圖目錄 ix 表目錄 x 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景、動機與目的 1 第二節 文獻探討 5 第三節 研究架構 11 第四節 資料與變數 13 第五節 研究假設 17 第六節 研究限制 19 第二章 空間分析方法 21 第一節 空間分析與鄰近定義 21 第二節 迴歸分析方法 24 第三章 資料與空間探索 31 第一節 變數的敘述統計 31 第二節 變數的空間探索 35 第四章 迴歸分析 37 第一節 最小平方迴歸分析 37 第二節 空間迴歸分析 43 第三節 小結 48 第五章 地理加權迴歸分析 49 第一節 參數設定 49 第二節 分析結果 51 第三節 小結 54 第六章 結論 55 第一節 結論 55 第二節 研究貢獻與未來研究建議 57 參考文獻 58 | - |
| dc.language.iso | zh_TW | - |
| dc.subject | 回溯性投票 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 空間自相關 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 空間分析 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 空間異質 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 地理加權迴歸 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | Spatial Analysis | en |
| dc.subject | Spatial Autocorrelation | en |
| dc.subject | Spatial Heterogeneity | en |
| dc.subject | Retrospective Voting | en |
| dc.subject | Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR) | en |
| dc.title | 我國選舉之回溯性投票 - 2020年總統大選的空間分析 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Retrospective Voting of Taiwan - Spatial Analysis of 2020 Presidential Elections | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | - |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 111-2 | - |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | - |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 周嘉辰;吳親恩 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | Chia-Chen Chou;Chin-en Wu | en |
| dc.subject.keyword | 回溯性投票,空間分析,空間自相關,空間異質,地理加權迴歸, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | Retrospective Voting,Spatial Analysis,Spatial Autocorrelation,Spatial Heterogeneity,Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR), | en |
| dc.relation.page | 66 | - |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202302242 | - |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(全球公開) | - |
| dc.date.accepted | 2023-08-08 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 社會科學院 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 國家發展研究所 | - |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 國家發展研究所 | |
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