商譽減損規範與分析師預測準確度： 以財務會計準則第142號為例

Abstract

美國財務會計準則委員會於2001年發布財務會計準則第142號「商譽與其他無形資產」，此舉改變商譽的會計處理，並對資本市場產生重大的影響。因此本研究探討財務報導準則的變更對於分析師盈餘預測準確度的影響。由於該號公報要求公司每年均要進行嚴格的兩階段減損測試，使管理階層在評估減損過程中需要取得更多的資訊，從而提升公司內部資訊環境，因此公司可以更清晰地傳遞關於商譽的會計資訊給投資人，進而提升分析師的盈餘預測準確度，並降低分析師盈餘預測的離散程度。本研究透過差異中差異法模型，發現在該號公報實施後，分析師對於受到該號公報影響的公司可以做出更準確的盈餘預測，但並沒有發現分析師預測的離散程度有顯著改善。本研究亦發現，在該號公報實施前，公司治理較差的公司，相比公司治理較佳的公司，在適用該公報後，分析師的預測準確度會有更明顯的改善。整理而言，本研究發現有報導商譽的公司在適用第142號公報之後，可以改善公司內部的資訊環境，進而傳遞更透明的財務資訊，從而改善分析師盈餘預測的準確度。

Using the adoption of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 142 (SFAS 142 hereafter) as an experimental setting, I investigate the effect of SFAS adoption on analyst forecast features. Motivated by the observations that SFAS 142 improves managers’ internal information sets and therefore facilitates management earnings forecasts (e.g., Cheng et al., 2018) by requiring more rigorous impairment tests through exquisite and complicated two-step procedures once a year, thus incorporating more transparent information into the market, this study investigates whether SFAS 142 adoption enhances analyst forecast accuracy and reduces forecast dispersion. Using a difference-in-differences design, I find that firms affected by SFAS 142 experience an improvement in analyst forecast accuracy in the post-SFAS 142 periods. However, I do not find any change in analyst forecast dispersion after SFAS 142 adoption. Furthermore, I also find that firms with weaker governance in the pre-SFAS 142 period experience larger improvements in analyst forecast accuracy. The findings suggest that with improved information sets, financial analysts can make better earnings forecasts.