從空間視角看青年因素與民進黨獲票之關係─以2014年九合一縣市長選舉為例

Abstract

本研究旨在以「空間」的觀點探討青年因素對於選舉結果的影響。選擇具話題性的2014年九合一縣市長選舉作案例，探討青年因素與當時最大獲勝黨─民進黨獲票之間的關係，回答：「在2014年九合一縣市長選舉中，青年人口比例較多的地區，民進黨的獲票是否正向成長?」，並進一步推導「空間」因素是否對於兩者關係有一定影響。 藉由「空間分析方法」，以台灣本島縣市做為研究單位，蒐集各地區各黨在2014年縣市長選舉的候選人獲票票數、青年比例以及相關社經指數，透過「視覺化呈現」、「空間探索分析」以及「空間迴歸分析」等方法，試圖屏除其他可能影響的社經因素，加以分析青年比例對於民進黨獲票之間的關係。 經過相關分析後發現，在2014年九合一縣市長選舉中，青年人口比例對於民進黨獲票的影響僅是局部而非全面，「青年因素對於民進黨獲票是有助益的」這樣的說法是不完全正確的。而從研究數據中可以發現青年因素對於民進黨獲票的影響解釋力不足，表示真正影響此次選舉結果的因素另有他者。然而，從研究過程中可以發現「空間因素」的影響顯著，台灣的選舉結果具有空間效應，因此在進行選舉研究時是不容忽視的。

The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of youth factors on election results from a 'SPACE' perspective. Select the topical 2014 Taiwanese Local elections, commonly known as the Nine-in-One election as a case study to observe the relationship between the youth factor and the DPP’s vote at the time, and to answer that whether the DPP’s vote is positive or not in the area with a large youth distribution ratio in 2014 Taiwanese Local Election. In this study, 'Space Analysis Method' was used to study the counties in the main island of Taiwan. Collecting the voting of each political party in every area, the youth ratio, and the relevant social and economic indices, also, used the methods such as “Visual presentation”, “Space exploration analysis” and “Space regression analysis” to screen out other socio-economic factors that may be affected, and analyze the relationship between the youth ratio and the DPP’s votes. After analyzing, it was found that in the 2014 Taiwanese Local Election, the influence of the youth population on the DPP’s votes was only partial rather than comprehensive. The statement that the youth factor is helpful for the DPP to receive votes is not entirely correct. From the research data, it can be found that the youth factor has insufficient explanatory power for the DPP’s vote, and the factors that really affect the outcome of the election are others. However, from the research process, it can be found that the influence of 'Space factor' is significant. Taiwan's election results have a spatial effect, so it is not negligible in conducting election research.