香港居民對立法會及法院的信任變遷研究～2001-2016年四波調查的分析

Abstract

在「九七」主權轉移後，中共當局施行「一國兩制」已逾二十週年，香港居民面對中共「一國兩制」所遂行的政府體制，感受與觀點如何，除了將影響未來中共統治香港的路線修正，也是臺灣親中或支持統一民眾的一個重要參考典型。本文為瞭解香港居民在「一國兩制」下對立法及司法體制之政治信任，以臺灣大學東亞民主研究中心「亞洲民主動態調查香港調查研究計畫」分別於2001年、2007年、2012年、2016年所進行之四波調查為時序進行分析。 透過該調查及理論回顧與文獻探討，並運用「二元勝算對數迴歸分析」，解讀香港居民之人口學變數（性別、年齡、教育程度及家庭收入）、社會學變數（社會階層及宗教信仰）及政治學變數 （政黨認同及民主價值取向）等對立法會及法院的信任有何差異性及其原因。研究發現： 一、 香港居民對立法會的信任最高峰為2007年有五成七左右，但是到2016年降低至三成七左右，落差近兩成。顯示香港居民對立法會有越來越不信任的趨勢。 二、 香港居民對法院在2007年及2012年之信任度都大於2016年，雖然數據落差未若對立法會之信任有落差近兩成之差距，但也相當反映出香港居民對法院信任的趨勢有下滑趨勢。 三、 人口學變數方面，香港居民對立法會與法院有一共通點，僅家庭收入最低者與家庭收入最高者相較不信任立法會與法院。社會學變數方面，香港居民對立法會與法院有一共通點，社會階層中自我認同為中層者、中下層者都比對照類別底層者信任立法會與法院。政治學變數方面，香港居民對立法會與法院有一共通點，在民主量表部分，僅自主權取向達顯著的差異；平等權、自由權取向均與信任立法會與法院呈現負相關的方向。

Hong Kong residents’ feelings and perspectives towards the political formula of “one country, two systems”, adopted by Chinese authority for over 2 decades since the former British colony returned to Chinese rule in 1997, will not only influence CCP’s revisions in ruling the special administration but also serve to be a vital reference paradigm for the more China-friendly or pro-unification Taiwanese. This study aims to explore Hong Kong people’s political trust towards Legislative Council and judicial system of the former British colony. Based upon analyses on four waves of surveys conducted respectively in 2001, 2007, 2012, and 2016 by researchers sponsored by The Hu Fu Center for East Asia Democratic Studies of National Taiwan University, the authors attempted to evaluate any potential variations of Hong Kong residents’ trust towards the Legislative Council and courts of law and to identify possible reasons behind such variations, under the influences of demographic variable (genders, age, education, household income), societal variable (social status and religious faith), and political variable (identification with political parties, democratic values). Results from the current study were derived from 4 waives of surveys conducted aforementioned, literature review and discussions, as well as binary logit regression analysis, as shown below: １． Hong Kong residents’ trust in Legislative Council peaked in 2007 with a 57% approval rating. The approval rating of trust has dropped nearly 20% and reached 37% in 2016, suggesting a steady trend of more and more distrust of Hong Kong residents toward the law-making body. ２． Hong Kong people’s trust in the judicial system and its courts of law has also depicted a negative trend of steady decline from surveys conducted in 2007, 2012 to opinion polls in 2016, though short of the significant 20% decrease seen in resident’s confidence in the Legislative Council. ３． In terms of demographic variable, survey respondents in the highest and lowest house income brackets have shared one common characteristic: less trust in both Hong Kong’s law making and judicial systems. As for society variable, surveys respondents who considered themselves in middle or mid-to-low social stratums were more likely to trust the Legislative Councils and courts of law, when compared with counterparts in the lowest social stratum. Finally, with regards to political variable, research findings has revealed one commonality in Hong Kong residents’ attitude towards both Legislative Council and the judicial system: within the overall democracy scale, only autonomy orientation was found to be statistically significant, while legality rights and freedom rights have revealed to show a negative correlation with trust in the Legislative Council and the courts of law in Hong Kong.