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標題: | 台灣社會保險財務可持續性分析 The Financial Sustainability Analysis for Taiwan Social Insurance |
作者: | Jui-Chih Chou 周瑞芝 |
指導教授: | 李存修 |
共同指導教授: | 林姿婷 |
關鍵字: | 財務可持續性,社會保險,精算方法,精算模型,精算應計負債,全民基礎年金,外匯型主權基金, Financial Sustainability,Social Insurance,Actuarial method,Actuarial accrual liability,One-Basic-Pension-Plan, |
出版年 : | 2019 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 台灣社會保險從民國32年發展至今已有76年,老年經濟保障安全網已具備基本的架構,惟因不足額提撥政策、人口老化及少子化造成社會保險的財務缺口愈來愈大,各基金頻臨破產的窘境。
過去兩年政府積極推動軍公教年金改革,國發會於103年提到了未來年金制度改革完成修法程序後,宜再審視相關制度待解決的六項問題,包括整合第一層保障制度、建立各社會保險間可攜式年資等之可行性,及農保與國、勞保整併,另各界關注基金投資運用的議題,如提升退休基金運用效率與建立各年金制度財務預警機制,甚至因應年金改革成立儲備或緩衝基金。 本研究呼應國發會待解決的六項問題,分別從1.老年經濟安全制度的完善性,2.制度整合的可行性,3.經濟保障的安全性,4.設立儲備或緩衝基金的必要性,等四個面向來進行台灣社會保險財務可持續性分析的研究。 本研究透過世界銀行及OECD各國的經驗,了解全世界的政府如何因應人口老化的問題,透過各國制度的比較,分析台灣各職業別社會保險制度面的缺口。透過全民基礎年金整合台灣5大社會保險的老年給付,精算未來收支相等的平衡費率,設立外匯型主權基金解決過去凍結的財務缺口,期許在政府財政可負擔的前提下,達到台灣社會保險財務可持續發展的目標。 It has been 76 years since Taiwan social insurances implemented in 1943. Though there are fundamental infrastructures for the old-age economic security, the underfunding policy, population aging, and low birth rate phenomena have led to the aggravation of financial shortfalls and the bankruptcy of social insurance funds. During the past two years, the government has devoted to the pension reformation for military personnel, civil servants and teachers. The National Development Council (the “NDC”) accentuated six additional problems to be solved after pension laws amendments, including the integration of the first-tier pensions, the establishment of a portable seniority among different social insurances, the merger of Farmer insurance into Labor insurance or National Pensions, and the improvement of the investment performance of funds (such as setting up early warning system or sovereign wealth fund.) The purpose of the study was to assess 4 of the 6 issues mentioned by the NDC and conclude whether the finance of Taiwan social insurances are sustainable. The discussed issues include, 1. Is the old-age economic security comprehensive? 2. Is the integration of different policies practical? 3. Is the economic security reliable? 4. Is the establishment of the early warning system or sovereign wealth fund necessary? The study aimed at analyzing the deficiencies of Taiwan social insurances by studying World Bank and OECD’s experience on the management of population aging. To conclude, the study anticipated Taiwan social insurances can achieve financial sustainability within government’s budget by integrating 5 social insurance plans into a One-Basic-Pension-Plan, calculating a fair premium rate, and setting up a sovereign wealth fund. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/73069 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201901422 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 財務金融組 |
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