中國大陸房價的VAR模型實證分析

Abstract

近年來，大陸普遍房價高、租房難、買房難，房地產市場也多次被評估為泡沫過大，為了控制房價增長速度，保證房地產市場安全平穩的發展，大陸政府出台一系列政策從限制貸款利率和土地購置價格等方面進行管控。本文選取了貨幣供應量、房地產平均價格、土地購置平均價格、境內住戶消費型中長期貸款、消費價格指數和國房景氣指數六個密切相關的變數進行向量自迴歸(Vector Autoregression, VAR)模型實證分析。結果表明貨幣供應量、土地購置價格和房地產價格確實在長期存在著穩定的關係，並且土地購置價格和貨幣供應量都對房地產價格產生正向影響，印證了政府政策控制房價的有效性。基於研究結果建議政府可以一方面適當控制貨幣供應量，另一方面對土地使用權轉讓制度進行針對性改革。

In recent years, it’s more difficult to rent houses, buy houses for ordinary people. And real estate bubble has been estimated larger so many times. In order to control housing price and make real estate market develop steadily, a series of policies has been taken into effect, including controlling loan interest rate and land purchasing price. Six closely related variables are choose to analyse why housing price keeps going up by using a VAR model. The variables are money supply,land purchasing price, housing price, medium and long term consumption loans, CPI and real estate climate index. According to the result, it can be found that money supply, land purchasing price and housing price do exist a close relationship in the long term, which is in accordance with policies. To be specific, both the purchasing price of land and money supply have positive impacts on housing prices. Based on the research result, this paper suggests that the government can properly control the money supply on the one hand, and on the other hand, it can reform the land use right transfer system.