動態隨機存取儲存器價格影響因素之研究

Abstract

本文以2002年第一季至2013年第四季的動態隨機存取儲存器的供給、需求和平均價格、美國GDP等時間序列資料，進行實證分析，透過實證模型去了DRAM價格的變動的原因，本文透過了充足率、產業結構以及總體經濟的因素和誤差調整項目去架構出DRAM價格走勢的模型。 實證的結果發現，影響DRAM價格的主要原因是在於當期的供給與需求充足率，其次，也發現了整體產業結構進入了寡占結構，DRAM價格趨於穩定，在總體因素方面，因在新興市場需求成長後削弱了美國經濟的影響因素；最後，本研究發現實際與預期的誤差，影響期間是本期與前期的移動平均，換言之誤差大約2個季度可以調整完成。

In this study, we set up an empirical model to analyze the causative reasons of the the DRAM price changes by assessing the supply, demand and the average price of DRAM as well as the US GDP and other time-series data from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2013. The DRAM prices model was established by the sufficiency, industry structure, and overall economic factors and error term adjustments. Empirical results found DRAM prices is mainly influenced by the sufficiency ratio of current period. In addition, results showed that when the overall industrial structure became oligopoly, DRAM prices became stabilized. In the macro factors, the impact of the US economy was weakened after the growing demand of emerging markets. Finally, we found that the influence of DRMA price was resulted from the moving average between actual and expected error in the current and previous period, that is the error can be adjusted about two quarters complete.