我國總統選舉政治獻金之實證研究_以第13任總統選舉為例

Abstract

選舉預測是硏究選舉學者相當關心的問題，政治獻金與選舉有著密切關係，政治獻金具有相對較客觀的依據，心理上必須達到某一程度的支持，才有可能會產生從事捐贈的行為，且量化過程之推估相對上較有明確的數據。性別逐漸是政治領域中被加以探討的議題，但其是否在政治獻金中也有呈現出特別之處。因為首次女性總統候選人蔡英文出現，第13任總統選舉中政治獻金捐贈是否存在著男女性別上差距？過去總統大選兩黨選票分布有著明顯南北差距，國民黨及民進黨兩黨總統大選的政治獻金捐贈金額及筆數，是否和選票相同亦存在南北區域差距。是值得藉由總統大選政治獻金的分析，進一步探討的議題。結果發現，蔡英文雖為女性，其另一身分為代表民進黨參選，性別角色在影響總統大選的政治獻金捐贈多寡較不顯著，而與代表背後的政黨較有相關。收受個人及營利事業政治獻金筆數及金額有都市化現象，而有嚴重的城鄉差異。而原假設總統大選政治獻金因為我國政治版圖上各政黨有區域性的空間差異，總統大選的政治獻金亦存在著南北區域差異，經統計分析並無顯著相關，而是與區域人民的經濟程度相關。

Researchers who study elections are particularly interested in prediction of electoral outcome, while Political Donation are pivotal to elections. With Political Donation having relatively objective basis, a donor must feel strong support for a candidate to contribute financially, whose quantification enables a researcher to examine such behavior with relatively certain statistical inference. Despite gender being another subject gradually studied in politics, one wonders if gender also occupies a special realm in Political Donation. With the first female candidate Tsai Ing-wen having run for the 13th presidency of Taiwan, the question is whether a gender gap plays a role in Political Donation. Earlier presidential elections in Taiwan have always seen distinct differences in north-Vs-south voting for the two parties, which also sets the stage to examine the correlation between such geographical differences and sums, numbers of Political Donation for the Kuomintang and Democratic Progressive Party. The results show that the female gender of Tsai, also candidate of the DPP in the race, actually did not clearly influence Political Donation in the presidential election, instead reflected the underlying politics. There were also municipal concentrations in Political Donation from individuals and corporations, with such trends being more pronounced between city and smaller towns (or villages). The original hypothesis of Political Donation in presidential elections being related to Taiwan’s geopolitical uniqueness to show a north-Vs-south gap has been disproven with statistical analysis, to reveal instead a correlation to regional or local residents’ financial capacity.