我國大學繁星計畫成效之空間分析

Abstract

大學繁星計畫為大學多元入學管道之一，希望達成「學校均質、區域均衡」的目標，減少教育機會不均等的現象。故本文透過空間分析方法，以臺灣地區340所高中96至99年繁星計畫榜單為基本研究資料，探討四年各高中繁星錄取率的時間變化及空間分布特性，並透過迴歸分析，歸納影響各高中繁星錄取率的相關變數，進而討論大學繁星計畫的實施成效。 研究發現，高中繁星錄取率受到各年度提供名額的影響，隨著名額逐年增加，各年的錄取率也隨之提高；就空間分布來看，繁星錄取率高的學校分散、無一致性，無城鄉教育差距。此外，Moran’s I指標顯示高中繁星錄取率有空間自相關，位於台北市的高中繁星錄取率偏低，呈現空間負相關。最後，迴歸分析結果顯示，「高中特性」變數對高中繁星錄取率所產生的影響較大，而「高中所在地區屬性」變數則較為不顯著。顯示大學繁星計畫無法落實「學校均質」目標，仍須調整以落實教育機會均等的理念。

This study focuses on the analysis and discussion in the effect of equality of educational opportunity through the “Multi-Stars Project”. Multi-Stars Project is one kind of approaches for high school graduates to apply for universities in Taiwan. In this project, the government aims at not only achieving the equality of education in different schools, but also minimizing the Urban-rural Divide. Thus, the spatial regression analysis, based on the 340 schools’ admission lists of Multi-Stars Project during 1997-2010, is used to figure out the effectiveness in the entrance of universities in Taiwan. In the research, it reveals that the probability of university admission through Multi-Stars Project is affected by admission quota. As the admission increase every year, the annual admission rate also raise. According to the spatial distribution, the senior high schools that have good performance on the rate of admission to universities are all around, meaning that there is no gap between urban and rural education. In addition, the index of Moran’s I shows there is the spatial autocorrelation of the probability to enter universities through Multi-Stars Project, which also reveals that the probability to enter universities through Multi-Stars Project in schools in Taipei City is lower than that in schools in other cities, indicating negative spatial autocorrelation. Finally, by the spatial regression analysis, it finds that between the features of senior high schools and the high school regions, the former has more influence on the rate of admission to universities. The result implies that the Multi-Stars Project still need to be adjusted and improved to get the goal of equality of educational opportunity in Taiwan.