新北市政府歲出預算編列對資源配置影響之研究 - 以經濟發展支出與社會福利支出為例

Abstract

鑒於國家財政從中央到地方日愈困頓，尤以新北市為甚，總人口數為六都之冠，為全國第一大城市，加以幅員遼闊，各項基礎、重大建設尚待興建，又需面對全球化、在地化、都會化的環境變遷，以及公共需求與棘手議題日增等系絡，財政支出浩繁致財政狀況十分困窘，如何使有限的資源充分發揮其最大效益，實為新北市當前最大課題。 准上，本研究主要是探討新北市歲出預算編列對資源配置的影響，惟歲出預算政事別中，以經濟發展支出與社會福利支出預算之編列數分占第2及第3名，且該二項支出從100-104年不但起伏變化趨勢較大且似有相互排擠效應，對資源配置影響可謂至深且極，而占歲出預算政事別預算第一名之教育科學文化支出100-104年占總預算比率呈現穩定較無起伏變化，其對資源配置較無改善空間，另其餘各項政事別支出對資源配置並無深切影響；故本研究主要係以新北市經濟發展支出與社會福利支出為範圍，採用文獻分析、比較研究法及制度研究法等質性研究方法，並輔以單因子變異數分析及皮爾森(Pearson)相關係數檢定方法探討研析。 本論文的研究結果發現:1.新北市經濟發展支出與社會福利支出等二項歲出預算編列因升格改制、縣市長的不同及受高齡化、少子化影響而有差異，且該二項支出亦相互具有排擠效應；2.社福、人事費等負擔沉重加上財政困窘，資源排擠效應勢將更加嚴重；3. 地方政府自主財源低、非法定社會福利支出擴增，需結合民間資源挹注；4.引進民間資源或設置特種基金投入各項經濟建設；5.地方首長主導預算資源配置但其支持度與預算編列無關等。 本研究針對上述發現作成落實推行歲出額度制並確實樽節開支、控制支出成長規模、落實地方政府財政自主、遵守財政紀律並妥適分配資源使有效運用，及培植高齡化產業以促進經濟發展等多項建議。

In view of the financial situation deteriorating across the central to local government, finding a way to utilize and make the best use of limited resources becomes the most important issue to New Taipei City government. New Taipei City, among 6 special municipalities, is the most populous city of Taiwan with a vast territory. Various infrastructures are yet to be built, and environment change due to globalization, localization and capitalization need to be handled. In addition, conflicting public affairs and enormous financial deficit make the financial situation even worse. Given the above, the main purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of New Taipei City government’s resource allocation caused by the budget arrangement. Among all kinds of budget, expenditure of economic development and social welfare are listed in second and third place respectively. The two expenditures had colossal fluctuation during 2011 to 2015, it seems that the crowding out effect played a role and impacted the resource allocation tremendously. On the other hand, the expenditure of education, science and culture, which is listed in first place among all budget, presents relatively stable fluctuation during the same periods, and has relatively small rooms to improve. Besides, other expenditure has no profound effect to the resource allocation. Therefore, the scope of this research is focus on economic development and social welfare expenditure. The research method includes citation analysis, comparative research and regulation research. Furthermore, said two expenditure of the budget arrangement in the past 15 years from 2001 to 2015, governed by 3 mayors, is studied by said research methods and analyzed by one-way ANOVA test and Pearson correlation coefficient test. The research reveals the following results: 1, The budget allocation of economic development and social welfare are affected by the promotion of New Taipei City to a full special municipal city, different mayors, population aging and low fertility, and the two expenditure presents a crowding out effect to each other. 2, Social welfare commitment makes the crowding out effect even more serious. 3, The financial difficulties of local governments and the expansion of non-regular welfare expense requires extra resources from unofficial units. 4, Introduce unofficial resources or establish special funds to invest economic constructions. 5, Mayor manages the budget allocation but it has no correlation to his popularity rating. Based on the said results, the research proposes the following several suggestions: implement expenditure quota and austerity, control the growth of the expenditure, implement the financial autonomy of local government, comply with the financial regulation, allocate resource appropriately for effective use and raise industries related to an aged society to promote the economic growth.