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Title: | 中國疑似非法木材貿易進口來源變遷分析 The Change Analysis on the Imported Illegal Timber Trade in China |
Authors: | Shu-Ting Yang 楊舒婷 |
Advisor: | 邱祈榮 |
Keyword: | 社會網絡分析,中心性分析,NodeXL軟體,資料差異估計法,疑似非法木材貿易, Social Network Analysis,Centrality Analysis,NodeXL software,Data Discrepancy,Illegal Timber Trade, |
Publication Year : | 2015 |
Degree: | 碩士 |
Abstract: | 林產品的需求隨著各國經濟發展水準上升日益增加,其中原木和製材是許多加工林產品的原料,本研究欲探討此二項林產品在各國間貿易流通的情況,得知世界主要的需求者(進口國),乃利用社會網絡分析法(Socail Network Analysis)及NodeXL軟體進行進口貿易網絡分析與中心性分析,探討工業用原木和製材於2000、2005和2010年的全球進口貿易網絡,觀察各國進口概況與歸納出重要進口國後再深入探討。
三個年度中,向內程度中心性高的國家普遍集中在歐洲各國和東亞(含東南亞)等地區,其中,工業用原木進口網絡中,唯中國的向內程度中心性和進口量於三年度以來持續成長,2010年進口量近乎為2000年的三倍之多,達3,434.6萬立方公尺,接近中心性和中介中心性亦最高,成為最接近網絡核心、具有貿易影響力的國家。製材項則以美國為主要的進口大國,向內程度中心性高,亦與鄰國加拿大有極大量的進口貿易,但因2010年時進口量驟然減少,使得第二大國的中國反為三個年度以來,製材進口網絡中唯一向內程度中心性和進口量持續正成長的國家,也是貿易網絡中最接近核心的國家。 因此,本研究集中探討中國的進口貿易,先行觀察1992年至2013年兩項林產品的進口來源變遷,再藉由中國與貿易國的數據差,評估2000年至2013年的疑似非法原木和製材的貿易差異量和比率。本研究得出香港在中國林產品進口貿易中扮演重要轉口中介角色,後期隨著中國經濟發展蓬勃,中國改以直接向出口國進口,香港的功能因而式微;隨著中國工業用原木進口量增加,原以俄羅斯為主要的進口來源,近年來紐西蘭、美國和巴布亞紐幾內亞的原木量比重提升,巴布亞紐幾內亞的非法貿易之嫌最大,其次為東南亞國家;製材早期以印尼、馬來西亞進口為主,後期來自泰國、俄羅斯和菲律賓的製材亦有非法貿易的可能。 Roundwood and sawnwood are the raw materials of lots of processed wood products based on the forest resource. The countries which are lack of forest resource might be the main demanders of the wood products. As a result, the first purpose of this paper is to figure out the demanders and to study the trade flow between countries in the World’s trade network. Social Network Analysis (SNA) is one of the method to carry out the quantitate measurement of a network and show the network in a graph. Centrality Analysis is the main application of SNA and applied to study the industrial roundwood and sawnwood importing trade network in 2000, 2005 and 2010 in this paper with NodeXL software. Then, observe the status of import of countries to determine the main importing countries for further study. The countries with high in-degree centrality mean that they have a wide and huge connection with others. According to the results of the study, most of these countries are located in Europe and Asia, and China is the country with highest in-degree centrality and largest importing quantity of industrial round wood in 2010 among the world. Therefore, it is the country approaching the core of the network the nearest. In the part of sawn wood, USA used to be the main import among the global sawn wood trading network in 2000 and 2005, however, China becomes the one in 2010 with higher and growing in-degree centrality and more importing quantity. Therefore, this thesis focuses on China in the following sections. In 1992-2013, Hong Kong plays the role as entrepot port between China and the World in the early 1990s. In the 2000s, the data discrepancies between China and its partners are suspected as illegal trade. With the growth of China’s economic development, China directly imports industrial roundwood and sawnwood from the main exporters and there is also suspected illegal timber trade among them, e.g. Papua New Guinea and Southern Asia for industrial round wood and Russia, Philippines and Thailand for sawnwood. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/4489 |
Fulltext Rights: | 同意授權(全球公開) |
Appears in Collections: | 森林環境暨資源學系 |
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ntu-104-1.pdf | 4.42 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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