舞弊風險因子與欺詐財務報表的可能性 —以SAS No.99為證

Abstract

本研究之目的乃透過實證方法去辨認財務報表舞弊的風險因素，並且以美國會計師協會查核準則第99號公報為依據，建立一個模型以預測財務報表舞弊之可能性。決定舞弊有三個因素：壓力(Pressure)、機會(Opportunity)和合理化(Rationalization)。透過Logit模型分析探討143間公司，本實證結果顯示對於壓力之代理變數，像是資產報酬率，以及機會之代理變數，像是存貨對總資產之比率、關係企業交易、以及四大事務所，皆與財務報表舞弊有顯著相關。然而，沒有任何一個針對合理化此舞弊風險因素之代理變數是與財務報表舞弊顯著相關的。與學術上先前之研究結果一致，壓力與機會之代理變數相較於合理化之代理變數更能使財務報表舞弊之可能性被大眾所觀察。所建立之模型能正確地分類有相對較高成功機率的公司。更有甚者，值得注意的是財務報表舞弊之可能性與沙氏法案第302條以及第404條制定前後無攸關的差異。

The goals of this study are to empirically identify fraud risk factors and construct a model to predict the likelihood of financial statement fraud based on SAS No. 99. By employing logistic regression to 143 firms, this research finds that fraud risk factor proxies for Pressure—i.e. net profit/total assets—and Opportunity— inventory/total assets ratio, related party transaction, and Big 4—are significantly associated with fraudulent financial statement, whereas none of the fraud risk factor proxies for Rationalization is significantly associated with fraudulent financial statement. Consistent with prior research, it seems that the likelihood of fraudulent financial statement is easier to be publicly observed by using fraud risk factor proxies for Pressure and Opportunity rather than Rationalization. The constructed model can correctly classify firms with relatively high success rate. Furthermore, it is important to note that no relevant difference could be established before and after the enactment of SOA’s Section 302 and Section 404 toward the likelihood of fraudulent financial statement.