土地混合使用後火災風險改變分析方法之研究—系統動力學觀點

Abstract

土地混合使用對火災風險的影響，本文以強調系統內部結構及變因間因果關聯的系統動力學觀點並作為研究法來探討。 實際操作上參照系統動力學主要的建模程序。界定本研究的混合使用方式為商業及住宅(不含工業)，在辨別系統內生變數階段，一方面從火災科學之文獻搜尋影響火災風險的關鍵因素，另方面從其他實證研究或災例報告歸納重要的致災因子，建構因果迴路圖，並以此為基礎，轉寫模式方程式。實證地區則選擇台北縣淡水鎮內混合使用行為較明顯之街廓，以2002-2006 年該範圍內建築物火災案件數及傷亡人數為主要參照變數，對前述建立之模式反覆模擬修正。對於提高洒水系統安裝率及提高火災保險兩項設計策略，除在結果展現符合一般期望之結果外，並能在系統其他內生變數的變動趨勢中觀察策略對系統整體之影響，同時又能由模擬結果與實際數據資料的差異暗示原模式中其它原先未列入的變因存在。

To the impact which mixed-use to the fire risk, this issue considers a perspective of system dynamics that emphasis the intern structure of a system and the casual-effect relationships between variables as an analytical approach. In practice, it refers to modal-construction process of system dynamics mainly. Only commercial and residential use were blend in landuse that in the discussion. In the phase of intern variables identifying, important components were searched from fire science literatures. Fatal vulnerable factors were collected from case studies or reports the other way. The casual-effect loops were sketched; and translated to numerous equations. The research region is chosen the blocks had significant mix-use effect in Tamsui Town, Taipei County. The modal was repeated improving by referencing mainly the casualty and number of fire cases during 2000 to 2006. In conclusion, the modal not generally displays expectational outcomes that two strategies increasing the rate of the installation of spray system and fire insurance but also shows the impact given by strategies. With difference between simulated outcomes and real statistics, it has the ability of suggesting critical variables ignored at first.