投資型保單需求與總體經濟因素關係之探討

Abstract

台灣保險市場佔GDP的比重節節升高，而過去幾年壽險新契約的保費收入，投資型保險就占了近半數。本研究將探討決定影響投資型保險需求之總體因素，提供保險業在行銷策略上之分析與應用的參考。 本研究以2002年4月至2010年2月之樣本資料，所選取的變數包含台灣投資型保險新契約保費收入、郵局兩年期定存利率、台股指數月資料、景氣對策信號、平均國民所得。採ADF單根檢定、Chow的結構轉變之檢定與估計、向量自我迴歸模型（VAR）、Granger因果關係、共整合檢定進行實證分析，找出顯著影響投資型保險新契約保費收入的決定因素，最後再應用樣本外預測模型來估計保費收入與成長率。樣本外預測模型之預測方法中，採Recursive forecast預測方法之結果較其它方法顯著準確。

Taiwan's insurance market accounts for the proportion of the GDP have constantly increased in the past few years. New contract of life insurance premium income has been nearly occupied half by investment-linked insurance market. This study will explore macroeconomic factors of the demand for investment-linked insurance to provide marketing strategies for insurance industry. The study is based on samples and information collected from April 2002 to February 2010. The selected explanatory variables include the level of Taiwan investment in new compact insurance premium income, two-yearly certificate deposit interest rates of postal office, Taiwan's stock index on information, and average earnings in Taiwan. The goal of this project is to find which factors impact significantly on investment insurance premium income using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test, Chow breakpoint test and estimate, vector auto regression (VAR), Granger Causality, and Co-integration Test etc. Finally, estimating insurance premium income and growth rates by out-of-sample forecasting, which is among forecasting methods, Recursive forecast is significantly more accurate over other methods.