「一帶一路」基礎設施投融資機制研究——以亞洲區域為例

Abstract

「一帶一路」基礎設施建設項目近半數落在亞洲地區，主要集中在能源、交通和通信領域。亞洲區域國家多數為中等收入國家，城鎮化率有待提高，基礎設施提升空間較大。中國在亞洲區域國家推動的基礎設施項目，以「設計採購施工」和「國際公私合營」為主要運作模式。地主國和中國確認項目後，中國會提供部分投資，中資金融機構提供融資服務，而項目的設計與建設常常交由中國企業承包；投資案中綠地投資的佔比較少。「一帶一路」基礎設施投融資機制有3個明顯特徵：（1）以間接融資為主；（2）資金來源以國家公共支出為主；（3）以美元為主要融資貨幣。 「一帶一路」對參與國家和中國的影響逐漸浮現。從亞洲區域沿線國家的角度來看，大規模的基礎設施建設項目確實會增加其債務風險，但目前尚缺乏有說服力的證據證明中國有意設下「債務陷阱」；對中國而言，「一帶一路」基礎設施投融資對金融改革和人民幣國際化的影響十分有限。 「一帶一路」未來應加強多邊合作機制和私人資本的作用，儘量降低風險、提升效率。

Nearly half of infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are located in Asia, mainly in energy, transport and telecom sectors. Most of the Asian countries are middle income countries with urbanization rates to be improved. Engineering Procurement Construction (EPC) and Public Private Partnership (PPP) are the two main operating models for China’s infrastructure projects in Asia. After the host country and China confirm the cooperation of the project, China would provide part of the investment. Chinese financial institutions would provide financing services. In general, project design and construction contracts would be awarded to Chinese state-owned enterprises. The proportion of greenfield investments is relatively small. The financing mechanism has 3 major features: (1) Indirect financing as the main financing method; (2) National public expenditure as the main source of funding; (3) US dollar as the main currency. The impacts of BRI have gradually emerged. From the perspective of those emerging economies in Asian region, large-scale infrastructure projects will indeed increase the risk of debt overhang. But there is no convincing evidence that China intends to set up “debt traps”. For China, the impact of the investment and financing for the BRI infrastructure on China’s financial reforms and RMB internationalization is very limited. It would be ideal that multilateral cooperation mechanisms and private investment could play more important roles in the future, so as to minimize risks and improve efficiency in the BRI.