AR與3D掃描技術之電子商務模式分析與創新

Abstract

行動裝置與網路的普及，為人們的生活帶來劃世代的革新。科技也改變了人們的購物習慣，行動裝置與網路普及後，越來越多人使用行動裝置進行網購，與此同時，卻可能也產生了新的問題。 行動裝置的螢幕比例遠小於傳統螢幕，人們在使用行動購物時，也越來越容易因為螢幕大小的差異而對商品大小的判斷產生誤差。儘管大型電子商務的物流已進步到可在一天內到貨，並且具備低門檻的退貨流程。但發生退貨就會使得買賣雙方耗費時間成本與金錢成本，不但喪失了電子商務的優勢，也會造成買賣雙方逐漸流失於電子商務，形成負向循環。然而，科技的進步與普及，也提供了解決上述問題與創造新型態的電子商務模式的機會。 本文旨在探討電子商務未來可能有的樣貌。因此首先根據交易雙方的角色為分類依據，定義電子商務的四種型態。並選擇買方為一般消費者的三種電子商務模式進行分析，以及探討目前擴增實境與三維掃描（3D掃描）技術的技術發展與現況。分析後可以得知，擴增實境與三維掃描技術預期完全普及的時間點約為2020年，而在這段期間，電子商務產業的營收預計將持續以大約22%的成長率高速成長，並將在2020年達到2017年的1.7倍。 由前段分析可以知道，在距今不到3年的2020年，很有機會可以利用擴增實境與三維掃描技術的普及，使得行動裝置皆可使用擴增實境與三維掃描的技術，並根據此趨勢對電子商務的現有模式進行改造，以解決現有電子商務難以及時體驗所產生的問題，並讓過去無法使用電子商務交易的產品也能進入電子商務市場。因此本研究透過電子商務模式創新，提出結合擴增實境與三維掃描的新電子商務交易模式。 最後，透過價值創造循環理論（Value Creation Cycle）、創新三要素理論檢視新的電子商務商業模式具備可行性，並能夠對電子商務產業產生正向循環。

The popularity of the mobile devices and internet brings cross-generation creativity to human's life. Technology changes consumers' shopping patterns. With the popularity of mobile devices and internet, more and more people use mobile devices for online shopping. However, it creates new problems. The screens on mobile devices are much smaller than the ones on computers. When people are doing mobile shopping, it's likely to have misjudgment on the sizes of the merchandises due to the difference of the screen. Although the supply chains of those well-developed e-commerce vendors are so efficient that consumers can receive the merchandises within one day and the return procedure has low requirements and limitation, returning usually costs time and money on both parties. This could cause not only losing the advantages of e-commerce but also a vicious circle that both suppliers and consumers lose confidence in e-commerce. This thesis is to explore the possibilities of e-commerce. Based on the roles in a transaction, e-commerce can be categorized into four types. The thesis also covers the analysis on the consumers' three types of e-commerce patterns and the discussion on the development and current stage of AR and 3D scanning technology. According to the study, AR and 3D scanning technology is estimated to mature in 2020.During this period of time, the revenue of e-commerce is projected to continuously grow 22% and the revenue in 2020 will be 170% of the revenue in 2017. Based on the previous analysis, within 3 years from now, it's very likely to apply AR and 3D scanning technology on mobile devices and innovate the current business model of e-commerce. The innovation can remove the limitation and restriction of e-commerce on live experiences and the entry barrier of the e-commerce market. As a result, this thesis proposes an innovated e-commerce business model combining with AR and 3D scanning technology. Lastly, the thesis bases on Value Creation Cycle and Value Innovation Model to review the possibility of the innovated e-commerce business model and virtuous circle created in e-commerce industry.