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Title: | 中國大陸上市公司財務危機之探討-以中小企業板為例 Discuss of Financial Distress on China’s SME Listed Companies |
Authors: | Yi-Huan Lai 賴逸桓 |
Advisor: | 沈中華 |
Keyword: | 財務危機,中小企業板,特別處理公司,借款逾期公司,Logistic迴歸, Financial Distress,SME,Special Treatment,Debts in Default,Logistic Regression Model, |
Publication Year : | 2013 |
Degree: | 碩士 |
Abstract: | 近年來,兩岸關係不管是政治上的互動,或是經貿上的合作都日趨緊密。由於過去國內外學者對於財務預警模型的研究大多集中在上市櫃的大型企業,因此本文將研究對象著墨於中小企業板,希望透過預警模型的建構,準確預測出一家公司危機發生與否的機率,提供給有興趣投資中國大陸中小企業的台灣投資大眾更多的參考依據。
本文的研究對象為2007 年到2013年間發生財務危機的28間公司,財務危機的定義分為兩種,其一是特別處理(Special Treatment, ST)公司,另一類則是有逾期借款的公司,並根據自行選定的5項財務變數,包括總資產週轉率、流動比率、負債比率、資產報酬率以及淨值成長率,利用Logistic迴歸模型建立短期的一年危機預警模型。 研究結果發現,以逾期借款來定義中國大陸中小企業的財務危機似乎不是一項很好的代理變數,而在以全體危機公司(包括ST跟逾期借款公司)為樣本的情況下,資產報酬率對於預測中小企業的財務危機是一項很好的財務指標。 In recent years, the relation between Taiwan and China has become much closer no matter on the political interaction or the trade cooperation. The past research about the financial distress prediction model mainly focuses on big listed companies. Therefore, our study will concentrate on the SME (small and medium-sized enterprises) in China. By building a financial distress prediction model, we expect to precisely predict a company’s probability of financial distress and provide some references for Taiwanese investors interested in those companies. Our research picks up 28 financial distress companies from 2007 to 2013. Financial distress is defined in two ways. One is Special Treatment (ST) companies, and the other is the companies with debt in default. Finally, we choose 5 financial variables including total assets turnover ratio, current ratio, debt ratio, ROA and growth rate on equity to build one-year logistic financial distress prediction model. The empirical result suggests that with debt in default seems not to be an appropriate proxy for measuring financial distress. And the ROA ratio is an excellent indicator for all sample companies with financial distress. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/17555 |
Fulltext Rights: | 未授權 |
Appears in Collections: | 財務金融學系 |
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