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Title: | 氣候變遷對翡翠水庫供水、發電與防洪功能之衝擊評估 The Impacts of Climate Change on the Feitsui Reservoir Capability of Water Supply, Hydropower Generation, and Flood Mitigation |
Authors: | Chia-Hui Tai 戴嘉慧 |
Advisor: | 童慶斌(Ching-Pin Tung) |
Keyword: | 氣候變遷,水庫,減洪,供水,水力發電, Climate Change,Reservoir,Flood Mitigation,Water Supply,Hydropower Generation, |
Publication Year : | 2010 |
Degree: | 碩士 |
Abstract: | 近幾年來極端水文事件頻傳,氣候變遷使得雨量呈現極端化,進而影響豐枯水期的流量,使得水庫入流量差異增加,間接衝擊水庫供水、發電與防洪功能。枯水期流量的減少可能影響水庫的供水、發電標的;而颱風時期的極端暴雨,產生之高流量可能危及水庫防洪標的,並引發水庫安全等相關問題。因此本研究之研究目的在於探討氣候變遷對水庫供水、發電、防洪功能之衝擊。台灣地區借重水庫功能儲存與分配水資源,部分水庫具有發電功能,供水同時產生發電效益。除此之外,水庫對於颱風、暴雨等洪水事件,亦可提供水庫容量作為蓄洪用途,可減輕下游地區在短時間內受到高流量洪水衝擊。然而在面對氣候變遷對水文特性之影響,乾旱時間延長,暴雨強度增加,極端的現象屢現,水庫原先設計供水、發電、防洪標的,在氣候變遷持續影響下,是否依舊合乎其設計功能成為重要的議題。本研究以新店溪流域之翡翠水庫為研究區域,應用大氣環流模式對未來氣候預設情境之評估結果推估水庫流量,並且依據計畫需水量與水庫運轉規則,模擬翡翠水庫蓄水量與發電量之變化;另一方面以防洪運轉規則模擬翡翠水庫於颱風事件中水位之變化,確保水位能否維持於最大可能洪水位以下,維護水庫安全性。藉此評估翡翠水庫供水、發電與防洪能力,因應氣候變遷下水資源分配之調適與規劃。結果顯示氣候變遷下多數情境缺水情形較少,唯獨GFCM2.1模式於A1B中期與A2中期情境之缺水率稍高,分別為2.79%與1.23%。而氣候變遷下枯水期總發電量於短期減低約230萬度,至中期將減低566萬度;豐水期總發電量短期將增加182萬度,中期增加約82萬度。在防洪功能評估結果,代表氣候變遷尖峰在前雨型於較高起始水位時,運轉期間將超過最大可能洪水位,因而危及水庫安全。 In recent years, climatic variation leads to the increasing frequency of extreme events and the difference of river flow between wet period and dry period. The increasing intensity and duration of drought events will result in the storage insufficient for water supply and hydropower generation. On the other hand, the extreme flood in wet seasons will cause great impacts on the operation of reservoir in flood mitigation. Climate change may cause more climate variability and further result in more frequent extreme hydrological events which may greatly influence reservoir’s functions. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the capability of water supply, hydropower generation and flood mitigation of a single reservoir. The inflows are generated based on different climate scenarios from different GCMs’ outputs. Then, these inflows are applied to evaluate reservoir storage for estimating water supply capacity and hydropower generation. The flood mitigation capability is evaluated for different typhoon events that are designed based on a historical typhoon event and strengthened according to GCMs’ outputs. The Feitsui reservoir is chosen as a case study. Results indicate that most of cases display fewer insufficient for water supply, whereas the GFCM2.1 model leads to higher insufficient rate, only 2.79% in A1Bm and 1.23% in A2m, respectively. Under climate change, hydropower generation will decline 2.3 and 5.66 million degrees in short term and middle term in dry period, and increase 1.82 and 0.82 million degrees in short term and middle term in wet period, respectively. When the flood mitigation operation starts at higher water level, the typhoon event having early peak rainfall may cause reservoir safety problem under climate change. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/10658 |
Fulltext Rights: | 同意授權(全球公開) |
Appears in Collections: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
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ntu-99-1.pdf | 3.66 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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