請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/10658
完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 童慶斌(Ching-Pin Tung) | |
dc.contributor.author | Chia-Hui Tai | en |
dc.contributor.author | 戴嘉慧 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-05-20T21:47:33Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2010-08-10 | |
dc.date.available | 2021-05-20T21:47:33Z | - |
dc.date.copyright | 2010-08-10 | |
dc.date.issued | 2010 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2010-08-04 | |
dc.identifier.citation | 參考文獻
1. 王如意、謝龍生,「半分布並聯型線性水庫降雨-逕流模式之研究」,第八屆水利工程研討會論文集,1996。 2. 何宜昕,「氣候變遷對石門水庫供水與防洪能力衝擊評估方法之研究」,國立台灣大學生物環境系統工程學研究所碩士論文,2010。 3. 林俊成、李國忠,「全球溫暖化對畢祿溪試驗集水區河川流量衝擊評估」,台灣林業科學,第15卷,第1期,p.51-60,2000。 4. 洪念民,「氣候變遷對大安溪水資源營運之影響」,國立臺灣大學農業工程學研究所碩士論文,1996。 5. 莊立昕,「氣候變遷對頭前溪流域水資源系統供水承載力影響」,國立台灣大學生物環境系統工程學研究所碩士論文,2010。 6. 陳思瑋,「淡水河流域水資源永續性評估暨管理之研究」,國立台灣大學生物環境系統工程學研究所碩士論文,2005。 7. 童慶斌、洪念民、陳主惠,「氣候變遷對水資源影響評估與適應策略研擬」,中國農業工程學報,第45卷,第四期,p.73-90,1999。 8. 童慶斌,「系統動態模式建構概論」,環境系統動態理論與應用研習會,2001。 9. 童慶斌、李宗祐,「氣候變遷對七家灣溪流量之影響評估」,中國農業工程學報,第47卷,第一期,p.65-74,2001。 10. 童慶斌、吳明進、張斐章、李明旭、枊文成、謝龍生,「氣候變化網要公約國家通訊衝擊調適資料建置-氣候、水文、生態部分(一)」,行政院環境保護署專題研究計畫報告,2002。 11. 童慶斌、李明旭、葉欣誠、范正成、陳韻如、連宛渝、楊智翔,「水庫系統在變遷氣候中之脆弱度評估與支援決策技術發展(三)」,2009。 12. 經濟部水利署水利規劃試驗所,「強化區域水資源永續利用與因應氣候變遷之調適能力總報告」,2008。 13. 臺北翡翠水庫管理局,「台北翡翠水庫運用規則」,1989。 14. 臺北翡翠水庫管理局,「翡翠水庫運用要點」,2007。 15. 臺北翡翠水庫管理局、財團法人成大水利海洋研究發展文教基金會,「翡翠水庫洪水調節運轉作業檢討(二)」,2003。 16. 經濟部水利署,http://www.wra.gov.tw/ 17. Ayer, M. A., Wolock, D. M., McCabe, G. J., Hay, L. E., and Tasker, G. D., 1994. Sensitivity of Water Resources in the Delaware River Basin to Climate Variability and Change. U. S. Geological Survey water Supply Paper 2442. 18. Baltas, E. A.* & Mimikou, M. A., 2005.” Climate Change Impacts on the Water Supply of Thessaloniki”. Water Resources Development: Vol. 21, No. 2, 341–353. 19. Boosik Kang and Jorge A. Ramírez., 2007. Response of Streamflow to Weather Variability under Climate Change in the Colorado Rockies, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering ASCE / JANUARY/FEBRUARY. 20. Chiew, F.H.S., Teng, J., Vaze, J., Kirono, D.G.C., 2009.” Influence of global climate model selection on runoff impact assessment”. Journal of Hydrology. Vol. 379, 172-180. 21. Chow, V. T., 1959. Open Channel Hydraulic, Mcgraw-Hillbook co., New York. 22. Cole, J.A., Slade, S., Jones, P.D. & Gregory, J.M., 1991. 'Reliable yield of reservoirs and possible effects of climatic change'. in Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol 36: 579-597. 23. Fiona Johnson and Ashish Sharma., 2009. “Measurement of GCM Skill in Predicting Variables Relevant for Hydroclimatological Assessments.” American Meteorological Society, 24. Gleick, P. H., 1986. Method for Evaluation the regional hydrologic impacts of global climate changes. Journal of Hydrology, 88: 97-161. 25. Haith, D. A. and L. L. Shoemaker, 1987. ”Generalized Watershed Loading Functions for Stream Flow Nutrients”, Water Resources Bulletin, 23(3): 471-478. 26. Hamon, W.R., 1961. Estimating potential evapotranspiration, Journal of Hydraulics Division, Vol.83(7): 107-120 27. Hamon, W.R. and Walk, W.R., 1979. “Evapotranspiration under Depleting Soil Moisture,” Journal of the Irrigation and Drainage Division, ASCE 105(IR4), pp.392-402. 28. Hans Thodsen, 2007. “The influence of climate change on stream flow in Danish rivers”, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 333, pp. 226-238. 29. Hsieh, L. S. and Wang, R. Y., 1999. ‘A Semi-Distributed Parallel-Type Linear Reservoir Rainfall-Runoff Model and Its Application in Taiwan’, Journal of Hydrological Processes, 13, pp.1247~1268. 30. Hydrologic Engineering Center., 1990. “HEC-1 Flood hydrograph package: User’s manual and programer’s manual,” U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Davis, California. 31. Idos, S. B., 1984. Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration may increase streamflow. Nature, 312: 51-53. 32. IPCC, 2007. Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate. 33. Kang , B., Seung-Jong Lee, Dong-Hyun Kang, Young-Oh Kim., 2007. 'A flood risk projection for Yongdam dam against future climate change.' Journal of Hydro-environment Research 1: 118-125. 34. Koutsoyiannis, D., Efstratiadis, A., Mamassis, N., Christofides, A., 2008. “On the credibility of climate predictions.”Hydrological Sciences Journal. v53(4). 35. Lettenmaier, D.P., Wood, A.W., Palmer, R.N., Wood, E.F. & Stakhiv, E.Z., 1999. 'Water resources implications of global warming: a US regional perspective'. in Climatic Change Vol. 43: 537-579. 36. Matthew W. Wiley and Richard N. Palmer., 2008.” Estimating the Impacts and Uncertainty of Climate Change on a Municipal Water Supply System”. Journal of Water resources Planning and Managemaent. Vol.134:3:239-246. 37. Nash, J. E., 1957. “The Form of the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph”, IASH Publication No.45, Vol. 3- 4 pp. 114-121. 38. Nash, L.L. and Gleick, P.H., 1991. “ The sensitivity of streamflow in the Colorado basin to climatic changes. Journal of Hydrology. Vol. 125: 221-241. 39. Nash, L.L. & Gleick, P.H., 1993. The Colorado River Basin and climatic change: the sensitivity of streamflow and water supply to variations in temperature and precipitation. US Environmental Protection Agency. EPA230-R-93-009. Washington D.C. 121pp. 40. Ogrosky, H. O. and V. Mockus., 1964. “Hydrology agricultural lands. In , Handbook of Applied Hydrology , V. T. Chow(Editor)”, McGraw-Hill, New York. 41. Perkins, S.E., Pitman, A.J., Holbrook, N.J., McAneney, J., 2007. “Evaluation of the AR4 climate models’ simulated daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation over Australia using probability density functions. ” Journal of Climate 20, 4356–4376. 42. Pickering, N.B., Stedinger, J.R.and Haith, D.A., 1988. Weather Input for Nonpoint-source Pollution Models, Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering-asce, Vol.114(4): 674-690 43. Pickering, N.B., Hansen, J.W., Jones J.W., Wells, C.M., Chan, V.K. and Gowin, D.C., 1994. WeatherMan: A Utility for Managing and Generating Daily Weather Data, Agronomy Journal,Vol.86(2):332-337 44. Rao, D.V. and Clapp,D., 1986.Rainfall Analysis for Northest Florida, Part I: 24-hour to 10-day Maximum Rainfall Data. Technical Publication SJ86-3. St. Johns River Water Management District, Palatka, Florida. 45. Rodriguez-Iturbe and J. B. Valdes, 1979. “The Geomorphologic Structure of Hydrologic Response”, Water Resources Research, 15(6), pp. 1409-1420. 46. Rodriguez-Iturbe, G. Devoto and J. B. Vades, 1979. “Discharge Response Analysis and Hydrologic Similarity:The Interrelation between the Geomorphologic IUH and the Storm Characteristics” Water Resources Research, 15(6), pp. 1435-1444. 47. Suppiah, R., Hennessy, K.J., Whetton, P.H., McInnes, K., Macadam, I., Bathols, J.,Ricketts, J., Page, C.M., 2007. “Australian climate change projections derived fromsimulations performed for the IPCC 4th assessment report. ” Australian Meteorological Magazine 56, 131–152. 48. Tung, C. P. and Haith, D. A., 1995. Global Warming Effects on New York Streamflows. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 121(2): 216-225. 49. Vicuna, S., Leonardson, R., Hanemann, M. W., 2008.” Climate change impacts on high elevation hydropower generation in California’s Sierra Nevada: a case study in the Upper American River”. Climatic Change: 87 (Suppl 1):S123–S137. 50. Whetton, P.H., McInnes, K.L., Jones, R.N., Hennessy, K.J., Suppiah, R., Page, C.M., Bathols, J. and Durack P. 2005. Climate change projections for Australia for impact assessment and policy application: A review. CSIRO Techical Paper. 001, Aspendale, Vic., CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, 34p. http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print /open/whettonph_2005.pdf 51. Wilby, R.L., Whitehead, P.G., Wade, A.J., Butterfield, D., Davis, R.J., Watts, G., 2006. “Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK”. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 330, pp. 204-220. 52. The IPCC Data Distribution Centre, http://ipcc-ddc.cru..uea.ac.uk/ | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/10658 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 近幾年來極端水文事件頻傳,氣候變遷使得雨量呈現極端化,進而影響豐枯水期的流量,使得水庫入流量差異增加,間接衝擊水庫供水、發電與防洪功能。枯水期流量的減少可能影響水庫的供水、發電標的;而颱風時期的極端暴雨,產生之高流量可能危及水庫防洪標的,並引發水庫安全等相關問題。因此本研究之研究目的在於探討氣候變遷對水庫供水、發電、防洪功能之衝擊。台灣地區借重水庫功能儲存與分配水資源,部分水庫具有發電功能,供水同時產生發電效益。除此之外,水庫對於颱風、暴雨等洪水事件,亦可提供水庫容量作為蓄洪用途,可減輕下游地區在短時間內受到高流量洪水衝擊。然而在面對氣候變遷對水文特性之影響,乾旱時間延長,暴雨強度增加,極端的現象屢現,水庫原先設計供水、發電、防洪標的,在氣候變遷持續影響下,是否依舊合乎其設計功能成為重要的議題。本研究以新店溪流域之翡翠水庫為研究區域,應用大氣環流模式對未來氣候預設情境之評估結果推估水庫流量,並且依據計畫需水量與水庫運轉規則,模擬翡翠水庫蓄水量與發電量之變化;另一方面以防洪運轉規則模擬翡翠水庫於颱風事件中水位之變化,確保水位能否維持於最大可能洪水位以下,維護水庫安全性。藉此評估翡翠水庫供水、發電與防洪能力,因應氣候變遷下水資源分配之調適與規劃。結果顯示氣候變遷下多數情境缺水情形較少,唯獨GFCM2.1模式於A1B中期與A2中期情境之缺水率稍高,分別為2.79%與1.23%。而氣候變遷下枯水期總發電量於短期減低約230萬度,至中期將減低566萬度;豐水期總發電量短期將增加182萬度,中期增加約82萬度。在防洪功能評估結果,代表氣候變遷尖峰在前雨型於較高起始水位時,運轉期間將超過最大可能洪水位,因而危及水庫安全。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | In recent years, climatic variation leads to the increasing frequency of extreme events and the difference of river flow between wet period and dry period. The increasing intensity and duration of drought events will result in the storage insufficient for water supply and hydropower generation. On the other hand, the extreme flood in wet seasons will cause great impacts on the operation of reservoir in flood mitigation. Climate change may cause more climate variability and further result in more frequent extreme hydrological events which may greatly influence reservoir’s functions. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the capability of water supply, hydropower generation and flood mitigation of a single reservoir. The inflows are generated based on different climate scenarios from different GCMs’ outputs. Then, these inflows are applied to evaluate reservoir storage for estimating water supply capacity and hydropower generation. The flood mitigation capability is evaluated for different typhoon events that are designed based on a historical typhoon event and strengthened according to GCMs’ outputs. The Feitsui reservoir is chosen as a case study. Results indicate that most of cases display fewer insufficient for water supply, whereas the GFCM2.1 model leads to higher insufficient rate, only 2.79% in A1Bm and 1.23% in A2m, respectively. Under climate change, hydropower generation will decline 2.3 and 5.66 million degrees in short term and middle term in dry period, and increase 1.82 and 0.82 million degrees in short term and middle term in wet period, respectively. When the flood mitigation operation starts at higher water level, the typhoon event having early peak rainfall may cause reservoir safety problem under climate change. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-05-20T21:47:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-99-R97622009-1.pdf: 3746192 bytes, checksum: fedc14861c42c211fa23129030f33e7d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii 目錄 iii 圖目錄 vi 表目錄 x 第一章 前言 1 1.1 研究動機 1 1.2 研究目的 3 1.3 章節介紹 3 第二章 文獻回顧 5 2.1 大氣環流模式挑選 5 2.2 氣候變遷對水文與水資源之影響 8 2.3 氣候變遷對水庫功能的衝擊 8 2.4 氣候變遷對供水系統之衝擊 9 2.5氣候變遷對水庫發電之衝擊 9 2.6 氣候變遷對水庫防洪之衝擊 10 第三章 研究方法 11 3.1 研究區域簡介 12 3.2 氣候變遷情境與應用 15 3.2.1漸變試驗情境簡介 17 3.2.2大氣環流模式挑選 19 3.2.3氣象合成模式 33 3.3水文模式 34 3.3.1 GWLF(Generalized Watershed Loading Functions)模式 34 3.3.2半分布並聯型線性水庫降雨-逕流模式 37 3.4翡翠水庫水平衡與發電模式 39 第四章氣候變遷下翡翠水庫供水與發電評估 45 4.1 GWLF模式驗證 46 4.2 翡翠水庫模式驗證 49 4.3 氣候變遷下翡翠水庫供水與發電評估 52 4.4 小結 64 第五章氣候變遷下翡翠水庫防洪評估 66 5.1 半分布並聯型線性水庫降雨-逕流模式驗證 67 5.2 翡翠水庫洪水操作驗證 71 5.3 氣候變遷下翡翠水庫防洪影響評估 73 5.4 小結 83 第六章結論與建議 85 6.1 結論 85 6.2 建議 89 參考文獻 91 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 氣候變遷對翡翠水庫供水、發電與防洪功能之衝擊評估 | zh_TW |
dc.title | The Impacts of Climate Change on the Feitsui Reservoir Capability of Water Supply, Hydropower Generation, and Flood Mitigation | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 98-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 林裕彬,李明旭,陳彥璋 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 氣候變遷,水庫,減洪,供水,水力發電, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | Climate Change,Reservoir,Flood Mitigation,Water Supply,Hydropower Generation, | en |
dc.relation.page | 96 | |
dc.rights.note | 同意授權(全球公開) | |
dc.date.accepted | 2010-08-05 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 生物環境系統工程學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
文件中的檔案:
檔案 | 大小 | 格式 | |
---|---|---|---|
ntu-99-1.pdf | 3.66 MB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。