歐盟與印度之戰略自主比較分析（2017-2021）： 新古典現實主義的視角

Abstract

本論文比較分析歐盟與印度在川普第一任期（2017–2021年）於防務領域的戰略自主表現，並以新古典現實主義作為理論框架，探討國際環境如何透過「領導人意象」與「戰略文化」兩個中介變項影響戰略選擇。川普政府高舉「美國優先」大旗，動搖自由主義國際秩序，對歐盟與印度產生不同外部刺激，促使兩者重新審視安全戰略與對外依賴。 歐盟在美國削弱對北約承諾及貿易摩擦壓力下，逐漸認知到對美依賴之風險，並透過歐洲防務基金（EDF）、永久結構性合作（PESCO）等機制強化防務自主。然而，由於歐盟內部各成員國在安全觀念、軍事能力和政策偏好上存在分歧，加上歐盟長期依賴北約（尤其美國）提供安全保障，因此歐盟在防務自主方面的表現相對薄弱。相較之下，印度近年奉行「多邊聯合」（multi-alignment）戰略，強調決策的靈活性與自主性。面對中國崛起與邊境衝突的挑戰，以及美國「印太戰略」所帶來的合作契機，印度不僅積極推動本土國防工業發展（如「印度製造」政策），還持續多元化其軍備來源，展現出更高層次的防務戰略自主能力。 研究發現，兩者皆警覺外部依賴風險，並透過多邊合作維護安全空間，但防務自主表現因戰略文化與領導人意象差異而有所不同。歐盟偏向制度性、補充性，追求防務與外交平衡；印度則是在大國間遊走，並拒絕正式軍事同盟關係，展現更高行動與決策自主性。本文指出，國際體系變動雖是決定戰略自主意願的重要因素，實際表現仍深受國內中介變項影響。比較結果驗證新古典現實主義在解釋戰略自主差異的適用性，而未來歐盟與印度如何持續強化防務自主、平衡外部合作與內部整合，值得持續關注。

This thesis compares the defense strategic autonomy of the European Union and India during President Trump’s first term (2017–2021), using neoclassical realism as its theoretical framework. It examines how the international environment influences strategic choices through two key intervening variables: leader images and strategic culture. Trump’s "America First" policy weakened the liberal international order, pushing both the EU and India to reassess their security strategies and external dependencies. The EU, facing reduced U.S. commitments to NATO and trade frictions, recognized the risks of over-reliance on the U.S. and sought greater defense autonomy through mechanisms like the European Defence Fund (EDF) and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). However, internal divisions and continued NATO dependence limited its progress, resulting in relatively low actual autonomy. In contrast, India, emphasizing non-alignment and policy flexibility, leveraged border tensions with China and opportunities from the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy to strengthen its domestic defense industry and diversify arms sources, demonstrating higher strategic autonomy. The findings show that while both actors are aware of external dependence risks and pursue multilateral cooperation, differences in strategic culture and leader images shape their distinct approaches. The EU emphasizes institutional and complementary strategies, while India maneuvers among major powers and rejects formal alliances, showing greater operational autonomy. Overall, this study verifies the explanatory power of neoclassical realism for variations in strategic autonomy and suggests that future efforts to enhance defense autonomy must balance external cooperation with internal integration.