請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件：
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/98554完整後設資料紀錄
| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 陶儀芬 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Yi-feng Tao | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 陳丕舒 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author | Pi-shu Chen | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-08-18T00:51:28Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2025-08-18 | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2025-08-15 | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2025 | - |
| dc.date.submitted | 2025-08-06 | - |
| dc.identifier.citation | 壹、中文部分
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| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/98554 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 本研究探討中國共機擾臺行動，如何透過新聞報導的中介作用與黨派立場新聞報導的框架，影響臺灣民眾的鷹派與鴿派情緒氛圍。本文將此視為一場帶有戰略意圖的「鷹鴿賽局」訊號操作，並引入媒體框架、選擇性接觸與動機化推理與認知失調等理論來詮釋民眾的心理反應。研究蒐集自2022年至2025年共873日的時間序列資料，涵蓋共機動態、新聞報導篇數與網路輿論聲量，並運用ADL模型與中介、調節效應分析進行實證檢驗。結果顯示，共機行動對公眾氛圍的影響必須透過新聞報導的中介才能發揮作用，新聞報導每增加1%總量，將使鷹派氛圍增加0.50%、鴿派氛圍增加0.35%。偏綠新聞對民眾的鷹鴿氛圍皆具推升效果，偏藍新聞則僅對鷹派有延遲抑制。整體而言，中共藉軍事壓力轉移臺灣鷹鴿氛圍的企圖不但未能成功，反因媒體框架與心理機制產生反效果，加劇臺灣內部的公眾情緒氛圍極化與對立分岐。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | This study examines how China’s warplane incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) affect public sentiment through the mediation and framing of news coverage in general, and partisan news reports in particular. Considering these incursions as a strategically motivated Hawk–Dove game, the analysis draws on theories of media framing, selective exposure, motivated reasoning, and cognitive dissonance to explain the response in Taiwan’s public sentiment. Using 873 days of time-series data from 2022 to 2025, including warplane activity, news reports, and public-sentiment indicators derived from social listening data, the study employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) models to assess the media’s framing effects. The results show that military actions influence public sentiment indirectly through media reporting. A 1 % step-increase in news reports produces a 0.50 % increase in hawkish sentiment and a 0.35 % increase in dovish sentiment. News coverage from Green-leaning reports amplifies both hawkish and dovish responses, while Blue-leaning reports moderately suppress hawkish sentiment. These findings suggest that China’s coercive signaling did not achieve its intended objective of shifting public attitudes toward dovish sentiment. Instead, media dynamics and cognitive biases contribute to the polarization of public sentiment within Taiwanese society. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Submitted by admin ntu (admin@lib.ntu.edu.tw) on 2025-08-18T00:51:28Z No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2025-08-18T00:51:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 目次
論文口試委員會審定書 I 謝辭 II 中文摘要 III 英文摘要 IV 目次 V 圖次 VIII 表次 X 第一章 研究問題及研究設計 1 第一節 研究問題 1 第二節 研究設計概要 3 第三節 論文大綱 5 第二章 中國軍機擾臺的歷史背景及策略動機 9 第一節 台灣民眾身份認同的演變 9 第二節 中國崛起與地緣戰略的轉變 10 第三節 共機 ADIZ 干擾及海峽中線穿越13 第四節 兩岸鷹鴿賽局及中國危險邊緣策略 17 第三章 台灣民眾反應的理論視角 21 第一節 臺灣民眾對共機擾臺的初步觀察 21 第二節 訊號威攝與賽局理論 23 第三節 媒體框架理論 25 第四節 選擇性接觸理論 27 第五節 動機化推理理論 28 第六節 研究命題 30 第四章 研究資料與分析說明 33 第一節 資料樣本期間 33 第二節 因變數、自變數、中介／調節變數 33 第三節 變數描述及時間序列圖 34 第四節 時間序列穩定性分析 48 第五節 數據轉換說明 50 第五章 研究模型與方法 52 第一節 自回歸分配滯後模型（ADL）52 第二節 廣義最小平方法（GLS）52 第三節 衝擊反應函數（IRF）與累積反應函數（SRF）53 第四節 SRF 與 LRSS 長期穩態效果 53 第五節 中介效應分析54 第六節 調節效應分析 55 第六章 研究結果一：媒體中介作用及調節作用 57 第一節 ADL 模型結果 57 第二節 IRF 及 SRF 分析結果 61 第三節 中介／調節作用分析結果 65 第四節 ADIZ 與中線穿越行動的異同比較：統計證據與戰略意涵小結 71 第七章 研究結果二：共機、新聞報導、黨派新聞報導對民眾鷹鴿氛圍之效應 75 第一節 新聞報導總量對鷹鴿氛圍效應之 ADL 模型分析 76 第二節 黨派新聞報導對民眾鷹鴿氛圍效應之 ADL 模型分析 83 第三節 黨派新聞報導對鷹鴿氛圍極化之效應 86 第八章 結論 89 參考文獻 94 附錄 103 | - |
| dc.language.iso | zh_TW | - |
| dc.subject | 鷹鴿賽局 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 共機擾台 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 輿情氛圍 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 認知偏誤 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 媒體框架 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | China Warplane Incursions | en |
| dc.subject | Hawk-Dove Game | en |
| dc.subject | Cognitive Bias | en |
| dc.subject | Public Sentiment | en |
| dc.subject | Media Framing | en |
| dc.title | 共機擾臺、媒體框架與臺灣民眾的鷹鴿氛圍 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | China’s Warplane Incursions, Media Framing and Hawk–Dove Sentiment in Taiwan | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | - |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 113-2 | - |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | - |
| dc.contributor.coadvisor | 林澤民 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.coadvisor | Tse-min Lin | en |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 張佑宗;吳文欽 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | Yu-tzung Chang;Wen-Chin Wu | en |
| dc.subject.keyword | 共機擾台,鷹鴿賽局,媒體框架,認知偏誤,輿情氛圍, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | China Warplane Incursions,Hawk-Dove Game,Media Framing,Public Sentiment,Cognitive Bias, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 121 | - |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202503054 | - |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(全球公開) | - |
| dc.date.accepted | 2025-08-09 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 社會科學院 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 政治學系 | - |
| dc.date.embargo-lift | 2025-08-18 | - |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 政治學系 | |
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| ntu-113-2.pdf | 13.53 MB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
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