危老自主重建財務可行性評估及分析 -以臺北市重建計畫為例

Abstract

近年來，臺灣都市地區建築物老化問題日益嚴重，尤以臺北市大量存在的四樓及五樓老舊公寓最具代表性。此類建築普遍存在結構安全不足、防災設施匱乏及居住品質劣化等問題，已成為當前都市更新政策的重要挑戰。政府自民國106年（2017）施行《都市危險及老舊建築物加速重建條例》（簡稱危老條例），希望透過容積獎勵及程序簡化等政策誘因，加速老舊建築改建。然而，由於此類建築多採用建築技術規則之建蔽率檢討量體，原有樓地板容積遠高於現行臺北市土地使用管制的法定容積率，導致即便給予容積獎勵，仍難以達成原有樓地板面積重建之目標，進而造成重建後開發效益不足，難以產生規模經濟，整體財務可行性偏低。建商因獲利空間有限而缺乏合建意願，地主也難以接受分回面積縮減或需額外出資之現實，逐漸轉向自主重建模式。 自主重建模式雖能提高地主對重建過程之主導性，實務上卻面臨產權整合困難、市場價格波動、營建成本攀升及財務風險增加等多重挑戰，使地主期望之「室內一坪換一坪且免出資」的理想難以達成，進一步降低地主的重建意願與成效。 本研究以臺北市第三種住宅區內典型之四樓及五樓老舊公寓為研究對象，探討自主重建模式之財務可行性，並採取「量化財務模型分析」結合「質性深度訪談」之混合研究方法。首先，透過Excel建立參數化財務模型，依據基地規模（小型、中型、大型）進行損益平衡及敏感度分析，並創新提出「造價比（市場售價／營建造價）」作為輔助財務指標，系統性評估市場售價、營建造價、容積獎勵及全案管理費用等關鍵變數對重建財務結果之影響；其次，透過深度訪談政府官員、開發業者、建築師、營造廠、地主代表與專家學者，驗證模型參數之實務適切性，並進一步釐清自主重建推動過程中的制度障礙與資源缺口，包括財務規劃不確定性、資訊不對稱、融資限制及全案管理（PCM）與信託制度未臻完善等問題。 研究結果指出，基地規模、市場售價、營建成本與容積獎勵為影響自主重建財務可行性的四大關鍵變數，其中市場售價與營建成本對財務績效之影響尤為顯著。特別是小型基地之財務可行性門檻極高，其重建成效高度依賴市場售價穩定性及成本控管能力。此外，本研究所提出之「造價比」指標具備良好的實務應用潛力，可協助地主與政策制定者快速掌握財務門檻，成為評估重建可行性與利害關係人溝通之有效工具。 最後，本研究依據分析結果提出以下政策建議：(1) 提升小型基地之差異化容積獎勵與稅務優惠措施；(2) 強化重建前期財務規劃補助及低利貸款融資制度；(3) 建立公開透明之財務資訊平台與營造廠履歷查詢機制；(4) 完善信託與全案管理（PCM）制度的法規及操作標準，以有效提升自主重建模式之財務穩定性及實務推動成效。本研究成果可作為未來危老自主重建政策規劃與制度設計的重要參考，期能促進政策目標與市場條件之有效接軌，實現都市安全、更新與永續發展的整體願景。

In recent years, Taiwan’s urban areas have faced increasingly severe problems related to aging residential buildings, particularly exemplified by the prevalent four- and five-story old apartment buildings in Taipei City. Such buildings commonly suffer from structural safety deficiencies, inadequate disaster prevention facilities, and declining living quality, posing significant challenges for current urban renewal policies. Since 2017, the Taiwanese government has implemented the "Statute for Expediting Reconstruction of Urban Unsafe and Old Buildings" (commonly known as the Dangerous and Old Buildings Ordinance), aiming to accelerate reconstruction through incentives such as floor-area-ratio (FAR) bonuses and simplified procedures. However, as these buildings were initially constructed under older building coverage regulations, their existing floor areas substantially exceed current legal FAR limitations in Taipei. Consequently, even with FAR incentives, redevelopment projects frequently fail to achieve the original floor-area replacement goals, leading to insufficient development benefits, lack of economies of scale, and overall low financial feasibility. With limited profit potential, developers have little incentive for joint reconstruction projects, while property owners resist reduced floor-area returns or additional financial contributions, increasingly shifting towards autonomous (self-managed) reconstruction. Although autonomous reconstruction enhances landowners' control over redevelopment processes, it faces numerous practical challenges, including fragmented property rights, market price volatility, rising construction costs, and elevated financial risks. These issues make achieving landowners' ideal of “one-for-one indoor floor area replacement without additional contributions” highly challenging, further diminishing their willingness to pursue redevelopment. This study evaluates the financial feasibility of autonomous reconstruction through a mixed-method approach, combining quantitative financial modeling and qualitative in-depth interviews, focusing on typical four- and five-story old apartment buildings located in Taipei’s third residential zones. First, a parameterized financial model was constructed using Excel, analyzing breakeven points and conducting sensitivity analyses based on plot sizes (small, medium, large). Additionally, this study introduces an innovative financial metric, the "Price-to-Cost Ratio" (market price/construction cost), systematically assessing how critical variables such as market prices, construction costs, FAR incentives, and comprehensive project management (PCM) fees impact redevelopment financial outcomes. Second, the study validated model parameters and practical applicability through interviews with Taipei City government officials, real estate developers, architects, contractors, landowner representatives, and scholars, further identifying institutional barriers and resource gaps, including financial uncertainties, information asymmetries, financing constraints, and inadequacies in PCM and trust systems. The results reveal four critical determinants of autonomous reconstruction financial feasibility: plot size, market price, construction cost, and FAR incentives. Among these, market prices and construction costs demonstrated the highest sensitivity and significant impact on financial performance. Small-scale plots face particularly high financial feasibility thresholds, with redevelopment outcomes heavily dependent on stable market prices and effective cost management. Additionally, the proposed "Price-to-Cost Ratio" exhibits strong practical potential, allowing landowners and policymakers to rapidly identify financial thresholds, serving as an effective tool for feasibility evaluation and stakeholder communication. Finally, based on these findings, the study proposes specific policy recommendations: (1) Enhance differentiated FAR bonuses and tax incentives for small-scale plots; (2) Strengthen financial planning subsidies and low-interest financing during early redevelopment stages; (3) Establish a transparent financial information platform and a database of construction company performance records; (4) Improve regulatory frameworks and operational standards for trust and PCM mechanisms, effectively enhancing financial stability and practical implementation outcomes for autonomous reconstruction projects. The findings of this study serve as an important reference for future policy planning and institutional design, facilitating alignment between policy goals and market realities, ultimately contributing to comprehensive urban safety, renewal, and sustainable development.