論「修昔底德陷阱」於近世東亞的適用性──以明清戰爭為例

Abstract

近年來隨著中國政治、經濟、軍事實力的快速崛起，在全球範圍內的影響力與日俱增，使中美爭霸成為國際政治學的熱門話題。對此，美國國際關係理論學者艾利森（Graham Tillett Allison）於2012年提出了「修昔底德陷阱」理論，透過分析歷史上16個大國爭霸的案例，從「崛起」與「恐懼」的角度指出戰爭爆發的危險性，並為大國通往和平道路提供珍貴的線索與啟示。然而，根植於歐美歷史經驗的「修昔底德陷阱」，將中國置於「崛起強權」的地位加以分析，這種比喻方式是否恰當？該理論在政治制度、經濟結構與文化風俗皆迥異於西方的東亞是否同樣適用？除了恐懼之外，還有什麼非物質因素導致權力發生轉移？是故，本文嘗試藉由「修昔底德陷阱」的理論框架，研究16世紀末至17世紀上半葉明朝與建州女真（後金／滿清）的互動，分別從結構、認知與心理三個面向進行多角度分析，並提出「正統性」概念在清朝入主中原的過程中，究竟發揮了怎樣的作用？ 從對明清戰爭前因後果的深入分析，筆者認為本案例不僅符合「修昔底德陷阱」理論，在理解東亞歷史上的權力轉移方面也具有充分代表性；此外，新興強權透過對天命宣稱與道德塑造，確立國家統治正當性的「正統性」，有助於緩和戰爭所帶來的衝突與矛盾，減少權力轉移過程中產生的阻力，對於霸權更替起到積極推進的作用。

In recent years, with China's rapid rise in political, economic, and military power, its growing global influence has made U.S.-China rivalry a hot topic in the field of international politics. In response, American international relations theorist Graham Tillett Allison proposed the " Thucydides’s Trap " theory in 2012. By analyzing 16 historical cases of great power rivalries, he highlighted the dangers of war from the perspectives of "rising power" and "fear," offering valuable insights and clues for achieving peace among major powers. However, the " Thucydides’s Trap," rooted in Western historical experiences and analyzing China as a "rising power," raises questions about its appropriateness as a metaphor. Is the theory equally applicable to East Asia, where political systems, economic structures, and cultural customs differ significantly from those of the West? Beyond fear, what other non-material factors might contribute to shifts in power? This paper attempts to use the theoretical framework of the " Thucydides’s Trap " to study the interactions between the Ming Dynasty and the Jurchens of Jianzhou (Later Jin/ Qing dynasty) from the late 16th century to the early 17th century. It conducts a multidimensional analysis from structural, cognitive, and psychological perspectives, and explores the role of the concept of "legitimacy" in the Qing Dynasty's conquest of China. Through an in-depth analysis of the causes and consequences of the Ming-Qing wars, the author argues that this case not only aligns with the " Thucydides’s Trap " theory but also serves as a representative example for understanding power transitions in East Asian history. Furthermore, the rising power's assertion of the Mandate of Heaven and moral construction to establish national legitimacy ("legitimacy") contributes to mitigating the conflicts and contradictions brought about by war. This reduces resistance during the process of power transition and plays an active role in facilitating the succession of hegemony.