察覺氣候變遷正在發生？台灣民眾的災害事件經驗、社會資本、時間導向與氣候風險感知

Abstract

面對氣候變遷對地球生態系統所造成的負面影響，各國已陸續制定應對氣候變遷的政策措施與法規。然而，政策目標的實現需依賴公民社會的積極參與。民眾是否願意支持減緩氣候變遷的政策行動，主要取決於他們是否能清楚理解氣候變遷所帶來的威脅與影響。不同於過去文獻多數分別探討社會脈絡與個人社會心理因素對氣候風險感知的影響，本研究選擇同時考量兩者對氣候風險感知的影響。在整合Van der Linden（2015）的氣候風險感知模型與林宗弘等人（2019）的分析架構後，本文試圖提出研究假設，主張社會資本、災害事件經驗及未來時間導向與台灣民眾對氣候變遷的風險認知之間存在關聯。其中，結合型社會資本更能調節災害事件經驗與個人氣候風險感知之間的關係。 本研究選用了2020年《台灣社會變遷基本調查》與官方統計的災害風險資料，經過階層線性模型分析（hierarchical linear modeling）後發現，連結型社會資本、自陳災害經驗與未來時間導向是影響民眾氣候風險感知的重要因素。具體而言，當民眾曾參與環保連署、請願或抗議遊行，認為極端天氣對其所居住的社區有較大影響時，或對行為的未來後果表示更為關注或擔憂時，他們會認為氣候變遷對台灣或全球帶來較多負面影響。此外，當民眾居住在極端降雨較為頻繁的地區，或認為極端天氣對其社區造成的影響較小，且與社區成員有更多交流互動時，也會使他們認為氣候變遷對台灣或全球會帶來較為不利的影響。

Why do certain Taiwanese individuals perceive a heightened risk of climate change while others do not? Previous studies have independently investigated the effects of both social context and psychological factors on the public’s risk perception of climate change. However, few studies have focused on the potential joint influence of these two sets of factors on public’s risk perception. This thesis aims to fill in this gap by integrating together as its analytical framework. The hypothesis of this thesis is that social capital, disasters experiences, and future time orientation may be associated with public’s risk perception of climate change. Utilizing survey data from the Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSCS) 2020 and official statistics on disaster risk from the government of R.O.C., the author conducted hierarchical linear modeling analysis. The results indicate that individuals with higher levels of linking social capital, report more severe disasters experiences, and higher levels of future time orientation are more concerned about the negative impacts of climate change on Taiwan and the world. Additionally, residents in high-risk areas with more extreme rain events or reporting less severe disasters experiences, who also have more interactions with community members, would exhibit heightened concern about climate change.