東南亞國家的避險――以印尼為例（1990-2024）

Abstract

避險已成為近來廣受關注的策略選擇，在當今國際關係中扮演著重要角色。在美國與中國大陸競逐愈加激烈的情況下，許多國家都實施避險策略應對。避險策略的核心在於國家在面對外部威脅時，不將所有籌碼集中於某一強權，而是透過多元化的合作來維持國家利益的最大化。東南亞國家協會（Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN）成員國大多採取了程度不等的避險策略。 印尼作為東南亞國家協會中影響力最大的國家，採取了多種策略來平衡美中兩國的影響。面對美中的拉攏，印尼歷任總統也有些微不同的做法，但大抵不離避險策略。印尼在不同時期採取的對外策略，體現了其在國際舞台上的靈活應對和戰略自主性，隨著美中競爭的加劇，印尼必須更加謹慎地平衡兩國的影響，以確保國家利益的最大化。本文主要以印尼自1990年至2024年間的避險策略為研究案例，探討了其在不同政權下的外交政策變遷及其背景，所涵蓋的總統包括蘇哈托（Suharto）、哈比比（Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie）、瓦希德（Abdurrahman Wahid）、梅嘉瓦蒂（Megawati Soekarnoputri）、蘇西洛（Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono）與佐科威（Joko Widodo），分析美中競爭下印尼如何透過避險策略來維持國家利益的最大化。透過詳細的分析和政策探討，本文旨在提供更深入的視角，以理解東南亞國家協會成員國，特別是印尼的避險策略。

Hedging has become a widely recognized strategic choice and plays a critical role in contemporary international relations. As competition between the United States and China intensifies, many countries have adopted hedging strategies in response. The core of a hedging strategy lies in a nation's approach to external threats, avoiding concentrating all resources on a single power instead of maintaining diversified cooperation to maximize national interests. Most member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have adopted varying hedging strategies. As the most influential country within ASEAN, Indonesia has employed multiple strategies to balance the influences of the U.S. and China. Facing attempts by both powers to gain its favor, Indonesia’s successive presidents have adopted slightly different approaches, but largely adhere to a hedging strategy. Indonesia’s foreign policies over different periods reflect its flexible responses and strategic autonomy on the international stage. As U.S.-China competition intensifies, Indonesia must be increasingly cautious in balancing the influence of both nations to ensure the maximization of its national interests. This thesis examines Indonesia's hedging strategies from 1990 to 2024, exploring the shifts in its foreign policies under various administrations, including Suharto, Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, Megawati Soekarnoputri, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and Joko Widodo. It analyzes how Indonesia has maintained its national interests through hedging strategies amidst U.S. - China rivalry. Through detailed analysis and policy discussions, this paper aims to provide deeper insights into the hedging strategies of ASEAN member states, particularly Indonesia.