造林木生產之成本效益分析

Abstract

臺灣森林面積占全島面積60.71 %，若能好好妥善利用森林除了可以減緩氣候變遷並振興森林產業。然而，長期的觀念導致森林利用相關知識非常式微，甚至反對砍伐森林去做更進一步的利用。因此，為了能夠讓大眾了解永續森林管理需要一個量化的績效去吸引大眾的目光。產量最多的木材分別為柳杉、杉木（即福杉）以及臺灣杉，分別佔總產量的47.76、17.34以及7.82 %。本研究以模擬這三種樹種進行加工成規格材、木顆粒以及萃取抽出物的成本效益評估，觀察臺灣森林產業的發展可行性。 在分析中資料利用文獻、政府統計數據及市場價值等來源進行評估，並藉由淨現值(NPV)、內部報酬率(IRR)、修正後內部報酬率(MIRR)、還本期間(PP)、折現還本期間(DPP)等共5種方法評估假設狀況能否進行投資，再透過營業槓桿(OL)評估營業風險，最後藉由生命週期成本(LCC)建議成本改善。 分析表明規格材與精油萃取製程兩者相配合是適合臺灣林業發展的模式，不管收穫量為多少且木材利用率為33 % - 53 % 時，能創造利潤。精油萃取製程的OL相較於規格材小很多，但兩者都能夠穩定獲利。規格材的損益木材利用率為33 %，最低銷售價格為NT$ 11,599；精油則是53 % 以及NT$ 19。木顆粒製程由於無法透過提高售價去吸引投資者，因此需要調整運送、人力與電力成本。規格材的主要步驟成本為鋸木、乾燥以及加工，而精油萃取製程為包裝、蒸餾以及冷卻和分離，將這些成本改善有助於創造利潤。

The forest area in Taiwan constitutes 60.71% of the entire island. Properly utilizing these forests can help mitigate climate change and revitalize the forest industry. However, long-standing perceptions have led to a significant decline in knowledge related to forest utilization, and there is even opposition to felling trees for further use. Therefore, to make the public understand sustainable forest management, it is necessary to have a quantified performance metric to attract public attention. The most productive timber species are Japanese cedar, cypress (also known as Chian fir), and Taiwania, accounting for 47.76%, 17.34%, and 7.82% of the total output, respectively. This study simulates the cost-benefit assessment of processing these three tree species into lumber, wood pellets, and extracted products to observe the feasibility of developing Taiwan's forest industry. In the analysis, data from literature, government statistics, and market values were used for evaluation. The feasibility of investment under hypothetical conditions was assessed using five methods: Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR), Payback Period (PP), and Discounted Payback Period (DPP). Operational risks were then evaluated through Operating Leverage (OL), and finally, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) was used to suggest cost improvements. The analysis indicates that the combination of lumber and essential oil extraction processes is suitable for the development of Taiwan's forestry industry. Profits can be generated regardless of the harvest volume and when the wood utilization rate is between 33% and 53%. The OL of the essential oil extraction process is much lower than that of lumber, but both can achieve stable profitability. The breakeven wood utilization rate for lumber is 33%, with a minimum selling price of NT$ 11,599; for essential oils, it is 53% and NT$ 19. Due to the inability of the wood pellet process to attract investors through price increases, adjustments in transportation, labor, and electricity costs are necessary. The main cost steps for lumber are sawing, drying, and processing, while for essential oil extraction, they are packaging, distillation, and cooling and separation. Improving these costs can help create profits.