影響種豬拍賣價格因素之分析-以種豬中央檢定拍賣為例

Abstract

本研究探討影響台灣種豬中央檢定拍賣價格的因素。資料來源涵蓋106年至112年間共計48場，參與種豬中央檢定拍賣會的三個品種豬，藍瑞斯豬913頭、約克夏豬342頭及杜洛克豬1,918頭總計3,173頭。透過線性迴歸模型將前述三品種豬分成三組，分析豬隻生長性能、繁殖性能和市場環境等相對較易取得因素對拍賣價格的影響。結果顯示，出場序號、起拍價格在三個模型都造成顯著差異，而藍瑞斯豬組的模型除出場序號、起拍價格有顯著差異無其他顯著差異；約克夏豬組的模型在市場環境、生長性能及繁殖性能有顯著差異；杜洛克豬組的模型中則僅有生長性能及性別有顯著差異。研究結論，藍瑞斯豬的成交價格主要受出場序號和起拍價格影響，也就是越後面出場預測價格越高。約克夏豬的成交價格受到多種因素影響，而出場序號呈反向關係，因此，靠前出場預測價格越有利。杜洛克豬的成交價格主要受到生長性能及性別顯著影響，與藍瑞斯豬相同，越後面出場預測價格越高。為提升拍賣會收益，建議可以根據豬隻性能評分調整出場順序；約克夏豬出場順序可以增加靠前比例，並在基因選遇上盡量移除不利基因型；杜洛克豬隻則需要強化改進生長性能。

This study explores the factors affecting the auction prices of breeding pigs in Taiwan’s Central Breeding Pig Test auctions. The data encompasses 48 auctions from 2017 to 2023, including 913 Landrace pigs, 342 Yorkshire pigs, and 1,918 Duroc pigs, totaling 3,173 pigs. Using linear regression models, the pigs were divided into three groups to analyze the impact of growth performance, reproductive performance, market environment, on auction prices. The results indicated that factors significantly affecting auction prices included the order of appearance and starting price across all three models. Specifically, for the Landrace pig model, only the order of appearance and starting price had significant differences. The Yorkshire pig model revealed significant differences in growth performance, reproductive performance, and market environment. For the Duroc pig model, significant differences were found in growth performance and gender. The research concludes that the auction price of Landrace pigs is mainly influenced by the order of appearance, with later appearances resulting in higher prices. In contrast, the auction price of Yorkshire pigs is influenced by multiple factors, and there is a negative correlation between auction price and order of appearance, suggesting that earlier appearances are more beneficial. For Duroc pigs, auction prices are significantly affected by growth performance and gender, similar to Landrace pigs, with later appearances leading to higher prices. To improve auction revenue, it is recommended to adjust the order of appearance based on pig performance. Specifically, the order of appearance for Yorkshire pigs should be moved earlier, and unfavorable genotypes should be removed. For Duroc pigs, continuous improvement in growth performance is needed.