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標題: | 地緣政治風險與國際化績效之相關性分析——以亞洲五國為例 Geopolitical Risk and Its Correlation with Internationalization Performance of Five Asian Countries |
作者: | 林鈺錞 Yu-Chun Lin |
指導教授: | 連勇智 Yung-Chih Lien |
關鍵字: | 地緣政治風險,地緣政治風險指數,亞洲國家,國際化績效,外國直接投資,商品出口,Pearson相關檢定, Geopolitical Risk,Geopolitical Risk Index,Asian Countries,Internationalization Performance,Foreign Direct Investment,Exports,Pearson Correlation Test, |
出版年 : | 2024 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 近年全球地緣政治風險攀升,在中美貿易戰及烏俄戰爭等事件的影響下,國際貿易和資本流動受到重大衝擊。本研究選擇亞洲五國——台灣、中國、日本、韓國和印度作為主要研究對象,原因是上述國家經濟活動高度依賴國際貿易和投資,且深受地緣政治風險的影響,並假設地緣政治風險與國際化績效之相關性為顯著負相關,以中美貿易戰和COVID-19疫情作為分界點,將研究期間劃分為三個時期,透過Pearson相關檢定探討GPR指數與亞洲五國之國際化績效——外國直接投資流入(IFDI)、對外直接投資流出(OFDI)及商品出口的相關性。
研究結果顯示,中國擁有龐大市場規模、豐富自然資源和低廉勞動成本,持續推行吸引外資的政策,並將對外投資視為戰略工具,其多元化的出口商品結構和市場分佈,使其在地緣政治風險升高時,仍能吸引IFDI、擴大OFDI和出口。印度面臨基礎建設薄弱、政策不穩定性和保護主義等結構性問題,削弱外商投資信心,且出口結構集中在初級產品和資源型製造業,故地緣政治風險升高對其IFDI和出口有負面影響,但對OFDI影響較小,原因是其企業對外投資相對於國家政策與戰略,更考量自身商業利益。 台灣擁有完善基礎建設及高企業與政府效能,致力推行產業升級政策,面臨金融風暴與疫情時具有經濟韌性,故在地緣政治風險升高時仍能吸引IFDI。日本和韓國因與歐美國家保持穩固的政經關係,在地緣政治風險升高時,能經由外交途徑尋求支持,故GPR指數與IFDI無顯著相關性。三國在過去OFDI和出口高度依賴中國,但近年將重心轉向東協國家,降低與中國地緣政治風險升高所帶來的負面影響。 綜上所述,本研究發現地緣政治風險與國際化績效的相關性會因國家特性、政府政策及國際局勢而異,因此假說僅在部分國家與時期成立。 In recent years, global geopolitical risks have been on the rise, significantly impacting international trade and capital flows due to events such as the US-China trade war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study focuses on five Asian countries: Taiwan, China, Japan, South Korea, and India, as primary research subjects. These countries were chosen because their economic activities heavily depend on international trade and investment and are significantly influenced by geopolitical risks. The hypothesis posits a significant negative correlation between geopolitical risks and internationalization performance. The research period is divided into three phases using the US-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic as demarcation points. The Pearson correlation test is employed to explore the relationship between the GPR index and the internationalization performance of the five Asian countries, specifically focusing on foreign direct investment inflows (IFDI), outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), and goods exports. The research findings indicate that China, with its large market size, abundant natural resources, and low labor costs, continues to implement policies to attract foreign investment and views outward investment as a strategic tool. Its diversified export product structure and market distribution enable it to attract IFDI, expand OFDI, and increase exports even amid rising geopolitical risks. India faces structural issues such as weak infrastructure, policy instability, and protectionism, which undermine foreign investment confidence. Its export structure, concentrated in primary products and resource-based manufacturing, shows negative impacts on IFDI and exports due to increased geopolitical risks. However, the impact on OFDI is relatively minor, as Indian enterprises consider their own commercial interests over national policies and strategies in their outward investments. Taiwan, with its sound infrastructure and high efficiency in both enterprise and government, actively promotes industrial upgrading policies. Its economic resilience during financial crises and the pandemic allows it to continue attracting IFDI even amid rising geopolitical risks. Japan and South Korea, maintaining stable political and economic relations with Western countries, can seek support through diplomatic means during heightened geopolitical risks, resulting in no significant correlation between the GPR index and IFDI. Although these three countries' OFDI and exports were highly dependent on China in the past, they have recently shifted their focus to ASEAN countries, reducing the negative impact of rising geopolitical risks with China. In conclusion, this study finds that the correlation between geopolitical risks and internationalization performance varies depending on national characteristics, government policies, and international circumstances. Thus, the hypothesis is only valid for certain countries and periods. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/93082 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202401316 |
全文授權: | 同意授權(限校園內公開) |
顯示於系所單位: | 國際企業學系 |
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