全球電影票房的影響因素以及與影視公司股價的關聯

Abstract

本研究以從美國電影票房網站Box Office Mojo抓取全球六大電影發行商從2014年1月至2023年12月推出的240部暢銷電影為研究樣本，先探討放映家數、製作預算、票房表現、電影評分、電影類型和發行公司等變數對於該電影全球票房是否具有影響性，再來以事件研究法進一步探究全球票房的公布對於發行公司股價在電影上映期間的累積異常報酬是否具有相關性。首先本研究發現製作預算和全球票房表現為顯著正相關，表示當電影預算越多時，在電影製作上可能更用心，觀眾也更願意進場觀影帶動全球票房上升。使用者評分也與全球票房表現呈現正相關，代表Metacritic網站的使用者評分對於民眾觀影與否仍具有參考價值。美國國內票房在預測全球票房上也是有相當大的準確性，呈現顯著正相關，表示美國不僅在娛樂產業占有重要地位，美國國內票房也總是占全球暢銷電影票房的4~5成，代表只要在美國獲得成功，就幾乎可以保證在全球也會有不錯的票房。而在電影類型與全球票房的關係中，喜劇類型電影與全球票房為顯著負相關，驚悚類型電影則與全球票房為顯著正相關。而影評評分、綜合評分、國內首映的周末票房、電影的發行商這些變數與全球票房的關聯為不顯著。 接下來進一步探究全球票房的公布對於發行公司股價在電影上映期間的累積異常報酬是否具有相關性。本篇研究發現全球票房的公布與上映期間累積異常報酬的關係不顯著，推測公司股價應該是包含但不限於電影的全球票房表現，還有市場預期、公司的電影收入占比等等。此篇研究將有助於了解觀眾的偏好和需求，並提供予電影製作方題材的選擇和內容創作的參考，增加電影的全球票房和觀眾吸引力。

This study is based on data collected from the U.S. movie box office website Box Office Mojo, focusing on 240 popular films released by six major global film distributors from January 2014 to December 2023. First, we explore how variables such as number of cinemas showing the movie, production budget, box office performance, film ratings, genres, and film distributors companies impact the worldwide box office performance of these films. Additionally, we employ an event study approach to investigate whether the announcement of worldwide box office performance has any abnormal effects on the stock returns of the film distributors. Our findings reveal a significant positive correlation between production budgets and worldwide box office performance. This suggests that higher budgets often lead to more dedicated filmmaking efforts, and audiences are more willing to watch such films, thereby boosting worldwide box office performance. User ratings align with our expectations, showing a positive correlation with worldwide box office performance. This indicates that user ratings on platforms like Metacritic remain valuable for assessing a film’s appeal. Furthermore, U.S. domestic box office revenue serves as a reliable predictor of worldwide box office success. The strong positive correlation suggests that achieving success in the U.S. market often translates to favorable global box office results. Notably, U.S. domestic box office revenue typically accounts for 40-50% of a film’s global revenue. Regarding film genres, comedies exhibit a significant negative correlation with worldwide box office revenue, while thrillers show a significant positive correlation. However, variables such as critical ratings, overall ratings, domestic opening weekend box office, and film distributors do not significantly impact worldwide box office performance. Moving on to the event study, we find that the relationship between the announcement of worldwide box office performance and cumulative abnormal stock returns during the releasing period is insignificant. This suggests that stock prices are influenced by factors beyond just a film’s worldwide box office performance, including market expectations and the film company’s overall revenue composition. In summary, this research provides insights into audience preferences and needs, offering valuable guidance for filmmakers in terms of content creation and genre selection. By understanding these factors, filmmakers can enhance a film’s worldwide box office performance and audience appeal.