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Title: | 人口與經濟成長的關係-人口組成對經濟成長的影響 Population and Economic Growth: The Impact of Demographic Composition on Economic Growth |
Authors: | 陳彥臻 Yen-Chen Chen |
Advisor: | 廖珮如 Pei-Ju Liao |
Keyword: | 人口結構,經濟成長,養育成本,人口組成,粗出生率, demographic structure,economic growth,childrearing costs,demographic component,crude birth rate, |
Publication Year : | 2024 |
Degree: | 碩士 |
Abstract: | 本文使用1960-2019年的跨國資料進行實證迴歸分析,主要探討人口相關變數與經濟成長的關係,以及粗出生率與粗死亡率隨時間對經濟發展影響的變化趨勢,並與過去作比較,觀察近年來的轉變。實證結果顯示不同年齡階段的人口對經濟成長的影響不同,當生育率上升時,短期內,由於父母需要花費時間照料與陪伴小孩,減少工作時數與產出,對經濟成長有負面的影響,但長期而言,待小孩長大後成為勞動力,則對經濟成長具正向貢獻。不同人口年齡結構對經濟成長的影響亦不同,成人死亡率上升會減少勞動供給,不利於經濟發展,而小孩死亡率上升可減輕父母養育負擔,有助於經濟成長。本文亦發現近年來已開發國家粗出生率對經濟成長的負面影響漸增,此現象可能是由於養育與教育子女的機會成本增加所致,沉重的養育和教育負擔一方面導致生育率下降,另一方面加劇粗出生率對經濟成長的負向影響。而且,開發中國家粗出生率與粗死亡率對經濟成長的影響較已開發國家更為明顯。 This paper examines the correlation between demographic structure and economic growth, and the impacts as well as the trend of crude birth rate and crude death rate on economic growth recently. Utilizing historical data from 1960 to 2019, the regression results show that when crude birth rates increase, in the short term, it has negative effects on economic growth since parents have to spend time taking care of children. However, in the long term, when children grow up and become labor force, it has positive effects on economic development. Besides, adult mortality rate has negative effects on economic growth due to reduced labor supply, while infant mortality rate has positive effects on economic growth since the burden of childrearing is released. The results also indicate that the negative effects of crude birth rate on economic growth in developed countries become larger recently, which probably is due to the increasing costs of raising and providing education to children. Furthermore, the impacts of crude birth rate and crude death rate on economic growth of less developed countries count more than developed countries. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/91751 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202400297 |
Fulltext Rights: | 未授權 |
Appears in Collections: | 經濟學系 |
Files in This Item:
File | Size | Format | |
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ntu-112-1.pdf Restricted Access | 1.14 MB | Adobe PDF |
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