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Title: | 早期觀測資料與歷史文獻重建資料之時空比對分析: 以 19 世紀中葉後中國不同氣候分區的降水資料為例 Matching Early Instrumental and Documentary Reconstructed Climate Data in Time and Space: An Analysis of Precipitation Data in Different Climate Zones of China in the mid-19th Century Onward |
Authors: | 林有祥 Yu-Hsiang Lin |
Advisor: | 溫在弘 Tzai-Hung Wen |
Keyword: | 歷史氣候,資料比對,降水,氣候重建, Historical climate,data comparison,precipitation,climate reconstruction, |
Publication Year : | 2024 |
Degree: | 碩士 |
Abstract: | 隨著近年來的氣候暖化,氣候變遷的議題逐漸受到人們重視;在氣候變遷的研究中,利用長期的氣候資料並從長期氣候的變化趨勢中,可以協助研究者瞭解影響整體氣候尺度的物理、化學因子,進而了解未來氣候可能的樣態與變化。
觀測氣候資料的時間長度僅包含近150年,且早期觀測資料的數量十分稀疏;對於研究長期的氣候變遷而言時間長度並不足夠。為了得到更長期的氣候資料,研究者從各式各樣的歷史紀錄中尋找關於與氣候相關的紀錄,藉此推測過往可能的氣候狀況,其中文獻資料由於其時空解析度以及空間覆蓋度,更適合了解氣候變遷對經濟和社會的短期和局部影響,因此成為常用的氣候資料來源。 文獻資料透過文獻中關於氣候的相關敘述,將其轉化為不同的量化指數使研究者得以進行後續的分析,例如本研究所使用的REACHES資料庫,便是透過將歷史文獻中與氣候相關的文獻紀錄,按照不同降水、溫度指數的定義標準進行定義,藉此將質化資料轉化為量化資料。由於文獻氣候資料與觀測氣候資料的格式、空間位置具有相當差異,過往的研究者透過各種不同的方式,定義、尋找觀測氣候資料與文獻氣候資料之間的關聯性,從而將兩筆氣候資料進行整合。 本研究認為相較於定義兩筆氣候資料之間的關聯性,透過觀測氣候資料與文獻氣候資料之間的共同特徵進行比對,藉此尋找觀測氣候資料與文獻氣候資料之間的關聯性較為合適。因此,本研究透過環域的方式進行處理,假定與觀測氣候測站距離相近的文獻紀錄可以反應該測站該年度的降水狀況,並假定偏濕的文獻紀錄所描述的是年間月降水量偏多的月份、偏乾的文獻紀錄所描述的是年間月降水量偏少的月份。 研究結果則顯示在不同的氣候區中,相同降水指數的文獻紀錄所描述的降水狀況具有相當的差異,顯示在不同氣候區中觀測氣候資料與文獻紀錄的關聯性並不相同;此外,在不同氣候區中,紀錄者對於氣候的感知具有差異,文獻紀錄所反應的降水狀況與沒有紀錄時的降水狀況亦具有不同的關聯性;具體而言,氣候變化較明顯的氣候區,紀錄者對於降水狀況的認知更為敏感,具有文獻紀錄時的降水狀況更能反應出降水差異。 基於本研究的比對研究結果,不同氣候區之間文獻紀錄與觀測氣候資料之間具有不同的關聯性;進行氣候資料的整合時,必須將上述的關聯性納入考慮。 關鍵字:歷史氣候、資料比對、降水、氣候重建 In climate change research, the utilization of long-term climate data aids researchers in understanding the physical and chemical factors that influence the overall climate scale. Observed climate data spans approximately 150 years. Consequently, researchers utilize various "proxy data" to search historical records to infer past climate conditions. To comprehend the short-term and local impacts of climate change on the economy and society, literature data proves more suitable than other natural proxy data. Literature records are transformed into different quantitative indices through relevant descriptions. Researchers have employed various methods to define and seek correlations between observational and literature climate data to integrate the two sets of climate data. This study assumes that literature records in close proximity to observational climate stations can accurately reflect the annual precipitation conditions of the station in that particular year. It also assumes that records describing wet conditions correspond to months with higher-than-average monthly precipitation, as do records describing dry conditions. The study results indicate that literature records describing precipitation conditions for the same precipitation index vary significantly across different climate zones. This indicates that the correlation between observational climate data and literature records varies in different climate zones. Additionally, in different climate zones, recorders'' perceptions of climate differ, and the correlation between precipitation conditions reflected in literature records and actual precipitation conditions without records is also different. Specifically, in climate zones experiencing more obvious climate changes, recorders demonstrate greater sensitivity to precipitation conditions, and literature records more accurately reflect precipitation differences. This study finds that there are different correlations between literature records and observational climate data in different climate zones. It is necessary to consider these correlations when integrating climate data. Keywords: Historical climate, data comparison, precipitation, climate reconstruction |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/91577 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202400196 |
Fulltext Rights: | 同意授權(全球公開) |
Appears in Collections: | 地理環境資源學系 |
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ntu-112-1.pdf Until 2029-01-24 | 18.76 MB | Adobe PDF |
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