泰國榴蓮出口市場之價格和數量預測

Abstract

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Abstract This thesis aims to forecast the price and quantity of Thailand's durian exports to various destinations, including China, Hong Kong, the USA, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the world market. By utilizing historical data from 2002 to 2023 and employing advanced forecasting models, this research provides valuable insights for stakeholders in the durian industry and policymakers. The study adopts a time-series research design and applies ARIMA and SARIMA models to develop accurate and reliable predictions for the period of 2023 to 2026. The ARIMA and SARIMA models are chosen based on their ability to capture patterns and trends in durian export data. The findings of this study reveal insights into the predicted trends of durian export prices and quantities. For the price forecast, the models indicate a gradual upward trend, with an average price range of $4.2 to $4.8 per kilogram. As for the quantity forecast, the peak export period occurs from April to July, with the highest volume ranging from 120,000 to 230,000 tons during the period of 2023 to 2026. Overall, this research provides valuable insights into the future trends of Thailand's durian exports, facilitating informed decision-making for stakeholders in the durian industry and policymakers. The results contribute to the existing body of knowledge on durian export forecasting and highlight the significance of utilizing advanced modeling techniques for accurate predictions in the agricultural sector.

Keywords: Durian exports, Forecasting, Price prediction, Quantity prediction, ARIMA, SARIMA