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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 劉鋼 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Kang Ernest Liu | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 陽中 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author | Naewtawan Prasansang | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-09-22T16:37:49Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2023-11-09 | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2023-09-22 | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2023 | - |
| dc.date.submitted | 2023-08-11 | - |
| dc.identifier.citation | References
Ahumada, O. & Villalobos, J.R. (2009). Application of planning models in the agri-food supply chain: A review. European Journal of Operational Research, 196(1), 1-20. Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1994). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control. (3rd ed.). New Jersey: Englewood Cliffs Prentice-Hal. Bureau of Agricultural Economic Research. (2021). Situation of important agricultural products and trends in 2022. Bangkok: Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. Cumroon, C., Jatuporn, C., Suvanvihok, V., & Seerasarn, N. (2021). Forecasting export volume and export price of crude palm oil in Thailand: A case study of time series analysis. Journal of Modern Learning Development, 6(4), 315-329. Department of Agricultural Extension. (2020). Action plan for Thai fruit development 2022- 2027. Public Relations Group, Department of Agricultural Extension. Department of Agricultural Extension. (2022). Agricultural production information system. https://production.doae.go.th/site/login. 1 July 2022. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. Geeratipunsirikhun, P., Jatuporn, C., & Suvanvihok, V. (2022). Forecasting export quantity of green soybean of Lanna Agro Industry Co., Ltd. to Japan. Journal of Legal Entity Management and Local Innovation, 8(3), 125-138. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120. Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics (5th ed.). New York: McGraw Hill. Jatuporn, C., & Sukprasert, P. (2016). Forecasting models for rubber production and export quantity of Thailand. Khon Kaen Agriculture Journal, 44(2), 219-228. Kubo, K., & Sakata, S. (2018). Impact of China’s increasing demand for agro produce on agricultural production in the Mekong region. BRC Research Report Bangkok Research Center. Likhitpichitchai, P., Khermkhan, J., & Kuhaswonvetch, S. (2023). The Competitiveness of Thai Durian Export to China’s Market. GMSARN International Journal. 17. 371-378. Noodaeng, S. (2017). Export competitiveness of Thai durian in China market. European Journal of Business and Management, 9(36), 48-55. Pisuttinusart, C., Jatuporn, C., Suvanvihok, V., & Seerasarn, N. (2022). Forecasting the import demand for chemical fertilizer in Thailand. The EUrASEANs: Journal on Global Socioeconomic Dynamics, 3(34), 61-70. Ratsaminet, P., Jatuporn, C., Suvanvihok, V., & Seerasarn, N. (2021). Forecasting import volume of coffee in Thailand: An empirical study using Box-Jenkins approach. Journal of Roi Kaensarn Acadami, 6(8), 318-331. Rueangrit, P., Jatuporn, C., Suvanvihok, V., & Wanaset, A. (2020). Forecasting production and export of Thailand’s durian fruit: An empirical study using the Box–Jenkins approach. Humanities and Social Sciences Letters, 8(4), 430-437. Safari, S., Razali, N. A., & Rahim, M. S. A. (2021). From farm to China: A case study of Malaysian frozen whole durian export supply chain. Economic and Technology Management Review, 16, 1-20. Sankaran, S. (2014). Demand forecasting of fresh vegetable product by seasonal ARIMA model. International Journal of Operational Research, 20(3), 315-330. Somjai, K., & Patchimnan, A. (2016). ASEAN-China economic cooperation under the ASEAN-China free trade agreement (ACFTA): the case study of Thailand. [Doctoral dissertation]. Thammasat University. Striegel, L., Chebib, S., Lu, Y., Huang, D., Dumler, C., & Rychlik, M. (2018). Durian fruits discovered as superior folate sources. Frontiers in Nutrition, 5, 114. Sukloet, S. (2021). Thai Durian Export Competitiveness to the People's Republic of China Case Study: Strategic Partnership with Alibaba Group. Rajabhat Chiang Mai Research Journal, 22(1), 23-36. Thorogood, C. J., Ghazalli, M. N., Siti-Munirah, M. U., Nikong, D., Kusuma, Y. W. C., Sudarmono, S., & Witono, J. R. (2022). The king of fruits. Journal of plant people planet, 4(6), 538-547. Tongmak, T., Wararatchai1, P., Jotikasthira, C., & Onputtha, S. (2023). Enhancing Thailand’s Durian Export Capabilities Through SCOR Model: Thailand to China. Asian Scholar Network. 5(1). 161-168. Trade report MOC. (2022). Ministry of Commerce Information Technology and Communication Center. Retrieved from https://tradereport.moc.go.th/TradeEng.aspx. | - |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/89907 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | none | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | Abstract
This thesis aims to forecast the price and quantity of Thailand's durian exports to various destinations, including China, Hong Kong, the USA, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the world market. By utilizing historical data from 2002 to 2023 and employing advanced forecasting models, this research provides valuable insights for stakeholders in the durian industry and policymakers. The study adopts a time-series research design and applies ARIMA and SARIMA models to develop accurate and reliable predictions for the period of 2023 to 2026. The ARIMA and SARIMA models are chosen based on their ability to capture patterns and trends in durian export data. The findings of this study reveal insights into the predicted trends of durian export prices and quantities. For the price forecast, the models indicate a gradual upward trend, with an average price range of $4.2 to $4.8 per kilogram. As for the quantity forecast, the peak export period occurs from April to July, with the highest volume ranging from 120,000 to 230,000 tons during the period of 2023 to 2026. Overall, this research provides valuable insights into the future trends of Thailand's durian exports, facilitating informed decision-making for stakeholders in the durian industry and policymakers. The results contribute to the existing body of knowledge on durian export forecasting and highlight the significance of utilizing advanced modeling techniques for accurate predictions in the agricultural sector. Keywords: Durian exports, Forecasting, Price prediction, Quantity prediction, ARIMA, SARIMA | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Submitted by admin ntu (admin@lib.ntu.edu.tw) on 2023-09-22T16:37:49Z No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2023-09-22T16:37:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | Table of Contents
Abstract i List of Figures iii List of Tables vi Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background and Significance 1 1.2 Research Objectives 2 1.3 Scope and Limitations 3 Chapter 2 Literature Review 4 Chapter 3 Research Methodology 7 3.1 Data collection 7 3.2 Data Preprocessing 7 3.3 Model Selection and Optimization 8 3.4 Model Evaluation 9 Chapter 4 Empirical Results 10 4.1 Descriptive Statistics 10 4.2 Model identification 15 4.3 Model analysis and forecasting 19 Chapter 5 Conclusion 62 5.1 Discussion of Research Findings 62 5.2 Concluding Remarks 64 5.3 Limitation and Future research 65 References 66 Appendix: Preprocessing Data 69 | - |
| dc.language.iso | en | - |
| dc.subject | 榴蓮出口 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 薩里瑪 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 阿里瑪 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 數量預測 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 價格預測 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 預測 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | Durian exports | en |
| dc.subject | Forecasting | en |
| dc.subject | Price prediction | en |
| dc.subject | Quantity prediction | en |
| dc.subject | ARIMA | en |
| dc.subject | SARIMA | en |
| dc.title | 泰國榴蓮出口市場之價格和數量預測 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Price and Quantity Forecasting for Thailand’s Durian Export Markets | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | - |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 111-2 | - |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | - |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 朱琇妍;陳淑玲;何率慈 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | Shiou-Yen Chu;Shu-Ling Chen;Shuay-Tsyr Ho | en |
| dc.subject.keyword | 榴蓮出口,預測,價格預測,數量預測,阿里瑪,薩里瑪, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | Durian exports,Forecasting,Price prediction,Quantity prediction,ARIMA,SARIMA, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 70 | - |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202303638 | - |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(限校園內公開) | - |
| dc.date.accepted | 2023-08-12 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 農藝學系 | - |
| dc.date.embargo-lift | 2024-08-08 | - |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 農藝學系 | |
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