兩岸空運直航的客運量之研究：變化、原因及影響 （2008.05-2021.12）

Abstract

2008年臺灣財團法人海峽交流基金會和中國大陸海峽兩岸關係協會簽署《海峽兩岸空運協議》後，兩岸空運直航即於同年年底正式開通，臺灣與中國大陸的航空客運及貨運往來日漸頻繁。為探討兩岸空運直航之發展及變化，本研究採用次級資料分析法、比較法及深度訪談法，探討2008年5月臺灣第二次政黨輪替以來，迄至2021年底期間兩岸空運直航客運量的變化，並進一步解析之所以變化的原因，釐清其影響。 兩岸空運直航的需求及促成力量來自於兩岸40 多年來的經濟交流，經濟因素成為主要推力，在2008年以前，兩岸關係緊張，2008年總統馬英九執政後，兩岸關係改善，兩岸協商談判前取得政治基礎，促成兩岸空運直航協議成立，造就直航客運量邁向高峰。兩岸空運直航後，兩岸之間的主權和安全爭議並未造成兩岸空運客運量的直接減少，如2015年發生的M503航路事件，但對於臺海空域有安全威脅。臺灣由哪一個政黨掌握執政權，關係到兩岸關係是和諧或對抗，也因此影響兩岸空運直航客運量的變化，中國大陸對於臺灣不同政黨的執政，會採取不同的對臺政策，如管制陸客來臺觀光人數。美國在臺海扮演著微妙的影響角色，對於兩岸航空運直航的態度不反對，也沒有多做文章，謹守一中政策。2019年底開始並於2020年蔓延全世界的新冠肺炎疫情，重創了兩岸空運直航。 兩岸關係維持穩定的關鍵在於主政者基於理念或其他主客觀因素，願不願意與中國大陸維持和睦關係。政府基於職責，宜適時針對兩岸空運直航的需求和市場變化，輔導國內航空業和觀光業者積極因應，且無論兩岸關係處於何種狀態，為了避免誤判，累積互信，海基會和海協會的聯繫機制必須維持。另外政府對於兩岸之間空運直航各項事務，與中國大陸的各項談判，仍應秉持對臺灣最有利之立場及條件進行談判，並保留兩岸空運直航發展中的各項資料及記錄歷史軌跡，有利兩岸空運直航長遠發展。兩岸應儘速履行海峽兩岸民航飛航安全與適航合作協議，優先推動兩岸試行適航維修員證照認可和委託對方維修機構，執行航空器維修及簽放等各項作業，將有助於兩岸空運直航的客機於兩岸降落地之整備維護。 雙方航空主管部門可以共同針對兩岸航線的航空法制，就處理消費者爭議、飛安事件調查合作及調查權行駛、損失賠償等要點，先進行溝通同時適用於兩岸的法制化作業，取得共識。最後建議未來觀光發展應以維護觀光區品質為重，以及觀光和生態的平衡為績效。而在後疫情時代，在世界各國及中國大陸旅客能夠來臺旅遊之後，應積極展現臺灣在觀光上的進步，讓遊客對臺灣的印象耳目一新。

After the Straits Exchange Foundation and the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits had signed the Cross-Strait Air Transportation Agreement in 2008, the cross-strait direct flight have begun in the end of 2008. The passenger and cargo transportation between Taiwan and the mainland China have become prosperous. The methods of this study are secondary data analysis, comparative methods, and in-depth interview to focus on the change of the passenger traffic volume of the cross-strait flight from 2008 to 2021, analyzing the reason of the change, and clarifying the impacts. The economic change cross-strait for four decades created the demand and the main power to achieve cross-strait direct flight. The cross-strait relations were in tension before 2008, but improved when Ma Ying Jeou became the President of R.O.C., founded the political base for cross-strait negotiations. The Cross-Strait Air Transport Agreement had been signed, and the passenger traffic volume of the cross strait direct flight reach high peak. The sovereignty and safety issues like flight route M503 did not make the passenger traffic volume of the cross strait direct flight decreased, but it is a threat for Taiwanese air space. The cross-strait relations which is harmonious or confrontational depends on which party is in power, and the cross-strait relations impact the change of the passenger traffic volume of the cross-strait direct flight. The PRC adopts different policies to KMT and DPP, for instance, control the volume of tourists to Taiwan. The U.S. plays a subtle role in influencing the cross-strait relations, who was not against the cross-strait direct flight and did not make comment, to stick to One China policy. The COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2019 and spread to the entire world in 2020, which had profound effects on the cross-strait direct flight. The key for the cross-strait relations keeping stable is that the ruling party who based on agendas or other subjective or objective factors, is willing to keep harmonious relations with PRC. The government should guide the aviation industry and the tourism industry to respond to the demand and the change of cross-strait direct flight. No matter what kind of status about the cross-strait relations, the contact channel between Straits Exchange Foundation and the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits must be maintained for cumulating mutual trust and avoid misjudgment. In addition, the government should stick to the best position and conditions when negotiating sorts of the cross-strait direct flight affairs with PRC, and remain all documents and records of the process of negotiations which can be benefits for the development of the cross-strait direct flight. The Cross-Strait civil aviation Flight Safety and Airworthiness Cooperation Agreement should be carried out. Firstly, take a trial run of rendering cross-strait aircraft maintenance personnel licences valid and commission the maintenance organization of the other side to do the aircraft maintenance, flight release and the other things. The civil aviation authority of R.O.C. and P.R.C. can coordinate the legal systems about consumer dispute settlement, aircraft accident and incident investigation and compensation for damages to be applicable to cross-strait direct flight. At last, this study recommend that the government should focus on maintaining the quality of tourist area and make performance by balancing on tourism and ecology. In the post-COVID-19 era, the government should present the progress of tourism in Taiwan to impress the tourists of mainland China and other nations around the world.