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標題: | 美、歐、中在國際氣候建制的三角關係 The Triangle of United States, European Union, and China in the International Climate Regime |
作者: | 金德翰 Der-Han Chin |
指導教授: | 林子倫 Tze-Luen Lin |
關鍵字: | 氣候變遷,國際建制,氣候談判,戰略三角,氣候治理, Climate Change,International Regime,Climate Negotiations,Strategic Triangle,Climate Governance, |
出版年 : | 2023 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 本論文根據2009年至2022年間的國際氣候談判,試圖從結構的角度解釋美國、歐盟、中國三方談判立場的變遷,以及三方態度的變化對於國際氣候建制的影響。
依據次級資料分析法,本文蒐集了與美國、歐盟、中國氣候談判相關的官方與非官方文件,包含闡述國內氣候目標、UNFCCC氣候大會論述與談判立場的政府文件、UNFCCC正式公佈的文件與記述、涉及氣候議題的國際場合所產生的公報、前人對美國、歐盟、中國氣候談判的研究,以及這些場合的相關報導與評論。 本研究提出「氣候談判三角」的分析框架,說明即便是在尋求國際合作的議題上,行為者仍然會出於利益考量而利用彼此進行制衡,產生近似於戰略三角理論的分析結果。研究結果顯示,美國、歐盟、中國之間在氣候議題上的互動如框架所述。三方都會去評估自身的談判立場是否偏離另外兩者,以致有可能在談判上被孤立,使得國際氣候建制的走向不如自己的偏好。當行為者認為自己被孤立,或是另外兩者密切合作的可能性較高時,行為者會更傾向於在談判立場做出讓步,或尋求與另外兩者的合作;反之,當行為者認為自己的立場能得到反映,或者另外兩者難以合作時,行為者則更傾向於捍衛既有的談判立場與成果,也欠缺與另外兩者合作的誘因。 本研究的貢獻在於為氣候研究補足「結構」的角度,提出簡化的三角模型,說明氣候談判的大趨勢實則攸關美國、歐盟、中國之間的權衡。同時,也說明戰略三角理論可以擴大運用至氣候談判,也因此也可能適用於其他談判議題上。 Based on the international climate negotiations from 2009 to 2022, this thesis attempted to explore a structural explanation to the evolution of United States, European Union, and China’s negotiation stances, while also elaborated how the triangular relation among them also affects the international climate regime. This thesis used the Secondary Data Research method, analyzing the data and materials collected from official and non-official resources, including the climate policy targets from United States, European Union and China, their discourses and negotiations in UNFCCC COP, UNFCCC COP’s official documents, the communique, joint statement, announcement from important international occasions, such as G8 or Major Economies Forum, and past research, news articles, and comments. Proposing the “climate negotiation triangle” analytical framework, the research attempted to explain that, in seeking the international cooperation in climate change, main actors would still try to gain the advantage through cooperation and non-cooperation, like the analysis of strategic triangle. Result showed that in the triangular relation among them, the three actors would reevaluate and adjust their negotiation strategies in accord with the relationship they have with the other two actors. If they felt relatively isolated by the other actors, they would show more tendency of cooperation or concession, on the other hand, if they felt they weren’t isolated in this triangle, they would show less tendency of cooperation or concession. The contribution of this thesis is that it complemented the research of international climate negotiations with the sight of “structure”. Utilizing a simplified triangle model, the trend of climate negotiations was actually the power play among United States, European Union and China. Thus, the strategic triangle theory can be applied to climate negotiations and other fields. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/88926 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202302318 |
全文授權: | 同意授權(全球公開) |
顯示於系所單位: | 政治學系 |
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