少子化對寵物用品消費市場之影響-以高雄市P公司為例

Abstract

世界許多國家少子化狀況越來越嚴重，臺灣更是嚴重到甚至影響國家安全，連帶的人口高齡化也造成人口失衡，顯示國家必須提出有效的人口政策。在2021年臺灣15歲以下人口數與全國犬貓之數已呈現交叉，臺灣15歲以下人口數在2021年為283.52萬人，全國犬貓隻數為295.83萬隻，未來這樣的趨勢與比例仍會持續下去。

然而近幾年許多已婚夫婦寧願不生養小孩，而轉為飼養寵物，寵物已是家庭的一分子。許多統計數據顯示，相關的嬰幼兒用品消費市場正漸漸地萎縮，寵物用品消費市場則是成倍數成長。探究原因以經濟層面為最為重要影響因素，生養小孩需要有一定的經濟來源收入，否則許多人寧願不生。

本研究利用2020-2022年三年來高雄市P公司的三項關鍵數據，貓狗濕糧營業額、貓狗乾糧營業額、寵物用品總銷售額，以敘述統計來分析觀察寵物用品消費市場的趨勢，也利用高雄市2020-2022三年來相關的公開數據，高雄市新生兒數、高雄市消費者物價指數、高雄市家貓與家犬登記數、高雄市公立流浪動物收容所收容數，以敘述統計來分析觀察高雄市的相關趨勢，將上述所有數據再進行迴歸統計分析比對。

敘述統計及迴歸統計分析高雄市新生兒每年遞減，寵物用品消費市場則持續成長，飼養家貓的數量漸漸越來越多，飼養家犬的數量則越來越少，這是國人生活居住空間習慣的改變導致。另外高雄市家貓的登記數越多，P公司的各類銷售額則越高，在在顯示目前育養家貓是主流趨勢。最後以高雄市公立收容所來觀察，近年來雖然飼養貓犬數量增加，但並沒有導致高雄市流浪貓犬變多，表示國人動保意識抬頭，不會隨意遺棄家貓家犬。

The low birth rate in many countries around the world is becoming more serious. In Taiwan, it is also serious and it even affects national security. The associated aging population has also caused a population imbalance, which shows that the country must propose an effective population policy. In 2021, the number of people under the age of 15 in Taiwan and the number of dogs and cats in the country have crossed. The number of people under the age of 15 in Taiwan will be 2.8352 million in 2021, and the number of dogs and cats in the country will be 2.9583 million. This trend and proportion will continue in the future.

What has been observed in recent years is that many married couples prefer not to have children, but turn to keeping pets to seek spiritual comfort. Pets already exist as part of the family. Many statistics also show that the consumer market for baby products is gradually shrinking, while the consumer market for pet products is growing exponentially. To explore the reasons, the economic aspect is the most important factor. Having a child requires a certain source of income, otherwise many people would rather not have a child.

This study uses three key data of the P company in Kaohsiung City in the past three years from 2020 to 2022, namely, the turnover of cat and dog wet food, and the turnover of cat and dog dry food, and the total sales of pet products, In this study, we use descriptive statistics method to analyze the trend of the pet product consumer market over time, also use the relevant public data of Kaohsiung City from 2020 to 2022, the number of newborns in Kaohsiung City, the consumer price index of Kaohsiung City, the number of domestic cats and dogs registered in Kaohsiung City, and the number of public stray animal shelters in Kaohsiung City to analyze the relevant trends of Kaohsiung City. The regression models are used to identify the factors associated with the consumption of pet foods.

The empirical results show that the number of newborns in Kaohsiung City is decreasing every year, and the pet product consumption market continues to grow. The number of domestic cats is gradually increasing, and the number of domestic dogs is decreasing. In addition, the more registered domestic cats in Kaohsiung City, the higher the various sales of the P Company, shows the increase of raising domestic cats is currently the mainstream trend.