校園交通車與公務車電動化效益分析—以臺灣大學為例

Abstract

在氣候變遷與永續發展的趨勢下，除了國家與企業先後響應與簽署各項永續倡議和協議，並提出淨零期程與目標外，各國大學也作為行動者紛紛加入減碳行列發揮影響力，肩負起「大學社會責任」（University Social Responsibility）。2020年6月臺灣大學發布首本《大學社會責任報告書》，也宣示將在2048年達成碳中和的目標；其中的「交通車與公務車電動化」為交通議題中的重要一環。在巨大的轉型挑戰目標下，我們需重新審視目前仰賴化石燃料的運作模式、評估其對環境與社會造成的外部成本，並透過估算電動模式下的效益與成本，進而量化轉型下可能創造之價值。 本研究分別針對傳統燃油車與電動車，以經濟、環境與社會層面分析在臺大此個案條件下，校園交通車與公務車電動化的潛在優劣。經濟層面評估採取總擁有成本（Total Cost of Ownership, TCO）法，以計算校方擁有燃油車與電動車的生命週期成本，並進行敏感性分析。環境層面的評估則是透過美國阿貢國家實驗室開發的GREET模型之參數在地化，評估燃油車與電動車在生命週期階段對環境的影響。社會層面的評估以量化方法計算電動車減少的噪音汙染損害，並以質化分析探討大學作為減碳的行動者，運具轉型為其利害關係人所帶來的效益與成本。 研究結果顯示，電動車現階段與燃油車相比不具成本優勢，需仰賴技術進步使電池成本持續下降以及政策補貼，擁有電動車的總成本才能低於燃油車，進而激勵組織與消費者汰換燃油車。由於個案的特殊情境（部分車種年行駛里程較短），儘管大部分車種電動車在全生命週期所消耗的能源與溫室氣體排放較燃油稍少，但其車輛製造階段的氧化硫排放量卻遠大於燃油車，進而造成電動車每公里產生的空汙外部成本為燃油車之2-3倍。社會層面部分，機車電動化可以獲得最大的節省噪音效益，每公里可減少約96%的噪音汙染成本。

Universities across the globe are increasingly recognizing their responsibilities to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In June 2020, National Taiwan University released its first University Social Responsibility Report, detailing all the campus-wide efforts on sustainable developments—including its commitment to carbon neutrality by 2048. Vehicle electrification is believed to be an important action to achieve the climate goal. Huge impacts and uncertainties are anticipated during the transition to electric mobility on campus. It is of timely importance to have an evaluation framework for exploring the potential tradeoffs between environmental and economic aspects involved in the near-term evolution. In the economic aspect, the total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis results highlight the importance of government subsidies and lower battery costs for electric fleets to achieve TCO parity with their fuel-powered counterparts. In the environmental aspect, the life-cycle assessment (LCA), derived from the GREET-Taiwan model, suggests that while fleet electrification could reduce life-cycle energy use and carbon emissions, it will create much more sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions on the basis of per km—owing to the low vehicle use intensity of university fleets. In the social aspect, the electrification of motorcycles can achieve the greatest noise pollution benefits, and reduce the cost of noise pollution by about 96% per kilometer.