太陽光電政策對南臺灣農地價格之影響

Abstract

由於氣候變遷對產業經濟與社會生活的影響日漸深刻，世界各國採取了包含推動太陽光電等多種手段積極因應。然因太陽光電案場設置需大量土地，用作生產的農地時常成為標的之一，故分析相關政策對農地價格影響之意義不僅在於不動產市場本身，更攸關與糧食安全與鄉村發展。本文意圖探討2016年開始實施的「太陽光電2年推動計畫」是否顯著影響南臺灣的農地價格。

透過整合運用內政部不動產實價登錄資料、2010年農林漁牧普查村里檔與相關地理圖資，本文將太陽光電裝設條件最為寬鬆的一般農業區農牧用地的農地作為實驗組，其餘農地作為控制組，以差異中之差異法 (difference-in-difference, DID) 為實證分析架構之基礎。此外，本文亦透過將樣本劃分為不同子樣本與分量迴歸等方法，分析具不同特質之農地價格受政策影響程度是否具異質性。

實證結果證實，太陽光電推動政策確實使南臺灣農地價格顯著上漲，且農業產值較高、距臺鐵與高鐵車站較近、饋線可併網容量較大、距饋線併聯點較近、面積較大之農地，其交易價格受政策影響而上漲的幅度較大。此外，高價位農地價格影響亦較低價位農地大，且饋線可併網容量在高價位農地帶來更多的溢價，距饋線併聯點所造成的損失亦在高價位農地更明顯。

本文建議執政當局：應建立農地價格預警機制，防止農地投機炒作；設置可變更為太陽光電案場之區域時不宜僅以土地使用分區作為唯一考量，應綜合評估當地的作物生長與農業發展情形；結合當地農業產值等因素綜合考量農地變更回饋金繳納金額，不以土地公告現值為單一依據；評估和推廣光電開發的生態工法與環境友善措施。

Due to the increasingly profound impacts of climate change on industrial economy and social life, many countries have taken a wide variety of measures to response the challenge, including promoting photovoltaics. However, since the installation of solar photovoltaic projects requires a large amount of land, farmland with lower price and larger area always become the target of solar farm. Therefore, the meaning of analyzing the impact of solar photovoltaic policies on the price of agricultural land is not only related to the real estate market itself, but also other paramount issues, such as food security and rural development. The purpose of this paper is to explore whether the “2-year Solar Photovoltaic Promotion Project” implemented in 2016 has a significant impact on farmland price in southern Taiwan.

This paper integrated the data provided by Actual Price Registration System (APRS), the village-level data of 2015 Agricultural, Forestry, Fishery and Husbandry Census (AFFHC) and other related geographic maps. To conduct the empirical research, this paper adopted difference-in-difference (DID), taking “normal farming and grazing lands”, which can change to solar farms easily, as the treatment group and “urban / special farmlands” as the control group. Additionally, this paper also analyzes the heterogeneity of policy effects among farmland with different characteristics by dividing the whole sample into different subsamples and quantile regression.

The empirical results show that the solar photovoltaic promotion policy has indeed caused a significant increase in the price of agricultural land in southern Taiwan. Moreover, when the farmland’s agricultural output value is high, their distance from the Taiwan railway station, high-speed railway station and feeder is close, near a high-capacity feeder and the area is large, the degree of price increase will be more significant.

This paper suggests the government to establish an early warning system for farmland prices to prevent speculation on farmland. In addition, when setting up areas that can be changed to solar photovoltaic farms, multiple factors should be considered including the situation of crop growth and local agricultural development, instead of land use zoning. Moreover, the amount of payment of changing farmland to solar farms should be evaluated comprehensively, not just the assessed present value of land. Lastly, government should promote ecological engineering methods and other eco-friendly measures.